Sumqayıt
vs
Qarabag
0 – 1 Full time
| 25′ | S. Lobato | ||
| 32′ | Kady Borges | ||
| 45′ | J. Mouaddib | ||
| 46′ | S. LobatoM. Jankovic | ||
| 60′ | R. VasquezR. Ahmadzada | ||
| 60′ | N. OrucovTiago Almeida | ||
| 61′ | M. QurbanlyO. Kashchuk | ||
| 76′ | A. JankovicE. Mustafaev | ||
| 76′ | Renan SantanaKeffel | ||
| 77′ | R. Ahmadzada | ||
| 80′ | T. IsmaheelB. Huseynov | ||
| 88′ | H. HaqverdiA. Suleymanly |
Sumqayıt vs Qarabag overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sumqayıt vs Qarabag
| Probability | Sumqayıt | Draw | Qarabag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.0% | 22.3% | 59.7% |
| Market | 12.4% | 19.5% | 68.1% |
| Final | 13.8% | 20.2% | 66.0% |
| Edge | +5.6% | +2.7% | -8.3% |
Why Qarabag
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sumqayıt and Qarabag expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.23
Sumqayıt and Qarabag attack and defence ratings
Sumqayıt
Qarabag
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sumqayıt vs Qarabag: result vs prediction
Sumqayıt 0 – 1 Qarabag
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sumqayıt vs Qarabag markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 66.0% | 1.52 | -8.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 86.2% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.1% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sumqayıt | 13.8% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Qarabag | 66.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% |
| No | 40.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 34.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 86.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win | 37.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 40.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.0% |
Sumqayıt vs Qarabag stats
Sumqayıt vs Qarabag head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Sumqayıt | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 3-4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Sumqayıt | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 2-4 |
| 2025-08-22 | Qarabag | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-04 | Qarabag | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-03 | Sumqayıt | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 0-2 |
| 2024-12-16 | Qarabag | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa | 5-0 |
| 2024-10-06 | Sumqayıt | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Sumqayıt | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-25 | Qarabag | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa | 2-0 |
| 2023-12-08 | Sumqayıt | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-6 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sumqayıt vs Qarabag odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.4%, draw 19.5%, away 68.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 8.40 | 4.60 | 1.30 |
| 1xBet | 7.70 | 4.55 | 1.33 |
| Bet365 | 7.50 | 4.10 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 7.10 | 4.80 | 1.35 |
| Betfair | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.29 |
| Dafabet | 7.20 | 5.00 | 1.32 |
| Marathonbet | 7.40 | 4.55 | 1.32 |
| Pinnacle | 7.06 | 4.71 | 1.36 |
| SBO | 6.57 | 4.66 | 1.29 |
| Superbet | 6.90 | 5.00 | 1.33 |
| Unibet | 6.25 | 4.35 | 1.33 |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 4.40 | 1.35 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .