Qarabag
vs
Araz
3 – 2 Full time
| 8′ | J. Montiel | ||
| 14′ | R. Muradov | ||
| 42′ | I. ParoBruno Franco | ||
| 44′ | C. Makreckis | ||
| 44′ | M. Ahmadzada | ||
| 65′ | J. MontielM. Qurbanly | ||
| 65′ | T. IsmaheelR. Cephas | ||
| 65′ | M. AhmadzadaC. Nuriyev | ||
| 65′ | A. SudiA. Salyanskiy | ||
| 67′ | R. Cephas | ||
| 72′ | L. Dumancic | ||
| 73′ | Diego RosaPedro Bicalho | ||
| 76′ | R. MuradovC. Boli | ||
| 76′ | P. AndradeA. Fernandez | ||
| 79′ | M. Kane | ||
| 87′ | O. KashchukR. Khadra | ||
| 89′ | M. Qurbanly | ||
| 90′ | A. Salyanskiy |
Qarabag vs Araz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Qarabag vs Araz
| Probability | Qarabag | Draw | Araz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.1% | 21.4% | 10.5% |
| Market | 78.4% | 14.6% | 7.0% |
| Final | 75.9% | 16.3% | 7.9% |
| Edge | -10.4% | +6.8% | +3.5% |
Why Qarabag
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Qarabag and Araz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Qarabag and Araz attack and defence ratings
Qarabag
Araz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Qarabag vs Araz: result vs prediction
Qarabag 3 – 2 Araz
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Qarabag vs Araz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 75.9% | 1.32 | -10.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.1% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win | 43.8% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 75.9% |
| Draw | 16.3% | |
| Araz | 7.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.8% |
| No | 56.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win | 43.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 31.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 12.6% | |
| 1-1 | 10.1% |
Qarabag vs Araz stats
Qarabag vs Araz head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Qarabag | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 6-0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Qarabag | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 5-1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Araz | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 0-5 |
| 2025-05-11 | Qarabag | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-23 | Qarabag | Araz | Cup | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-02 | Araz | Qarabag | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-08 | Araz | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-3 |
| 2024-12-22 | Qarabag | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-02 | Araz | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-4 |
| 2024-05-26 | Araz | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Qarabag vs Araz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 78.7%, draw 14.5%, away 6.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.14 | 6.25 | 13.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.18 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.16 | 6.40 | 13.50 |
| Betfair | 1.12 | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.14 | 6.20 | 14.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.14 | 6.25 | 13.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.16 | 6.61 | 11.43 |
| William Hill | 1.18 | 5.80 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .