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Premyer Liqa · Full time ·Matchday 4

Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK

1 – 4 Full time

2′Jota
9′T. Akhvlediani
21′U. Cahangirov
25′V. Stina
25′Ricardo Fernandes
40′E. Adilkhanov
40′Rogerio
40′A. Bouali
40′D. Verdasca
46′R. MaharramliU. Abbasov
56′D. Acquah
59′U. CahangirovH. Ismayilov
62′T. AkhvledianiA. Shuaibu
63′A. Bouali
70′M. Ba
75′K. KalungaA. Samadov
75′N. AlasgarovR. Haciyev
75′M. BaBenito
76′H. Ismayilov
83′A. Samadov
84′A. FofanaU. Samadov
85′O. MammadovO. Tahmazli
85′A. BoualiH. Shiraliyev
85′E. AdilkhanovD. Dego
90′M. Abuladze

Ganja City Stadium, TovuzReferee: V. Hasanli

Kapaz 34%
Draw 34%
Şamaxı FK 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKapazDrawŞamaxı FK
Model34.5%36.7%28.8%
Market33.7%32.5%33.7%
Final33.9%33.6%32.5%
Edge+0.7%+4.2%-4.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Kapaz

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kapaz ↓ / Şamaxı FK → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 20% 13% 1 15% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 80%
2+ goals 52%
3+ goals 24%
No goals 20%

Kapaz and Şamaxı FK expected goals

Kapaz 0.90
Şamaxı FK 0.79

Total expected goals: 1.69

Kapaz and Şamaxı FK attack and defence ratings

Kapaz

Attack 0.64 -36%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Şamaxı FK

Attack 0.67 -33%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK: result vs prediction

Kapaz 1 – 4 Şamaxı FK

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Premyer Liqa

Before and after this match

Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kapaz 33.9% 2.95 +0.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 76.0% 1.32 — —
Both teams to score No 66.3% 1.51 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 67.5% 1.48 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 65.5% 1.53 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kapaz33.9%
Draw33.6%
Şamaxı FK32.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.524.0%
Under 2.576.0%
Both teams to scoreYes33.7%
No66.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.5%
12 (either side)66.4%
X2 (draw or away)66.1%
Handicap -1Kapaz win12.6%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss65.5%
Correct score (top 3)0-019.8%
1-015.2%
1-114.4%

Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK stats

Kapaz and Şamaxı FK recent form

newest first
Kapaz WLLLWW
Şamaxı FK DDLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Kapaz wins 3Draws 4Şamaxı FK wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-26Şamaxı FKKapazPremyer Liqa2-0
2026-01-31KapazŞamaxı FKPremyer Liqa0-2
2025-10-17Şamaxı FKKapazPremyer Liqa1-4
2025-04-20Şamaxı FKKapazPremyer Liqa2-1
2025-02-17KapazŞamaxı FKPremyer Liqa1-1
2024-11-30Şamaxı FKKapazPremyer Liqa0-1
2024-09-20KapazŞamaxı FKPremyer Liqa0-2
2023-04-21Şamaxı FKKapazPremyer Liqa1-1
2023-02-17KapazŞamaxı FKPremyer Liqa3-2
2022-11-28Şamaxı FKKapazPremyer Liqa1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.6%, draw 31.7%, away 33.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.65 2.90 2.62
1xBet 2.26 2.93 3.15
Bet365 2.70 2.80 2.70
BetVictor 2.55 2.90 2.80
Betano 2.72 2.87 2.70
Betfair 2.60 2.90 2.63
Dafabet 2.65 2.85 2.70
Marathonbet 2.62 2.77 2.70
Pinnacle 2.70 2.83 2.83
SBO 2.54 2.70 2.47
Superbet 2.50 2.90 2.92
William Hill 2.62 2.75 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.70 ▲ +0.45
X 2.80 ▼ -0.10
2 2.70 ▼ -0.40

6 snapshots recorded, from .