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Premyer Liqa · Full time ·Matchday 5

Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK

1 – 1 Full time

19′R. Ahmadzada
25′Jeam
33′Lucas Black
46′A. ShuaibuT. Akhvlediani
54′E. Adilkhanov
63′Lucas BlackE. Mustafaev
68′A. BoualiH. Ismayilov
68′E. AdilkhanovU. Cahangirov
71′JeamM. Bangre
79′O. MammadovD. Dego
80′R. VasquezV. Pashayev
80′Tiago AlmeidaN. Orucov
86′Renan Santana

Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium, SumqayitReferee: A. Aliyev

Sumqayıt 33%
Draw 30%
Şamaxı FK 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySumqayıtDrawŞamaxı FK
Model30.8%28.0%41.2%
Market34.4%31.1%34.5%
Final33.5%30.3%36.2%
Edge-3.6%-3.1%+6.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Şamaxı FK

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Şamaxı FK below the model: +6.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sumqayıt ↓ / Şamaxı FK → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Sumqayıt and Şamaxı FK expected goals

Sumqayıt 1.25
Şamaxı FK 1.47

Total expected goals: 2.72

Sumqayıt and Şamaxı FK attack and defence ratings

Sumqayıt

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 1.36 +36%

Şamaxı FK

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK: result vs prediction

Sumqayıt 1 – 1 Şamaxı FK

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Premyer Liqa

Before and after this match

Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Şamaxı FK 36.2% 2.76 +6.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.9% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.0% 1.79 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.7% 1.43 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.8% 1.70 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sumqayıt33.5%
Draw30.3%
Şamaxı FK36.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
Both teams to scoreYes56.0%
No44.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.8%
12 (either side)69.7%
X2 (draw or away)66.5%
Handicap -1Şamaxı FK win20.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss58.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.3%
1-28.9%
0-18.5%

Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK stats

Sumqayıt and Şamaxı FK recent form

newest first
Sumqayıt LLLLLW
Şamaxı FK WDDLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Sumqayıt wins 2Draws 5Şamaxı FK wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-13SumqayıtŞamaxı FKPremyer Liqa0-1
2025-11-30Şamaxı FKSumqayıtPremyer Liqa1-2
2025-08-29SumqayıtŞamaxı FKPremyer Liqa1-1
2025-04-12SumqayıtŞamaxı FKPremyer Liqa1-2
2025-02-09Şamaxı FKSumqayıtPremyer Liqa1-0
2024-11-24SumqayıtŞamaxı FKPremyer Liqa2-1
2024-09-14Şamaxı FKSumqayıtPremyer Liqa1-0
2023-04-16Şamaxı FKSumqayıtPremyer Liqa0-0
2023-02-12SumqayıtŞamaxı FKPremyer Liqa1-0
2022-11-11Şamaxı FKSumqayıtPremyer Liqa4-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.4%, draw 31.1%, away 34.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.62 2.88 2.61
Bet365 2.55 2.90 2.62
BetVictor 2.60 3.10 2.60
Betano 2.57 3.00 2.70
Betfair 2.63 3.00 2.55
Marathonbet 2.62 2.88 2.61
Pinnacle 2.65 2.92 2.69
SBO 2.46 2.90 2.51
William Hill 2.62 2.75 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.62 —
X 2.90 ▲ +0.03
2 2.61 ▼ -0.02

3 snapshots recorded, from .