Garuda Lions
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Premyer Liqa · Full time ·Matchday 5

Imisli FK vs Neftchi Baku

2 – 3 Full time

12′F. Vargas
28′Breno Almeida
30′B. Hasanalizada
45′A. Salahly
46′DecoS. Faracov
56′E. MahmudovGustavo Klismahn
56′L. TuptaD. Savic
61′F. VargasA. Akinyemi
65′A. EyubovR. Viegas
68′Gustavo Klismahn
76′F. NabiyevD. Cardoso
79′Breno AlmeidaD. Jubitana
79′I. MathewV. Sevelj
80′Gustavo Klismahn
86′JuninhoJ. Hernandez
86′M. YawM. Alakbarov

Yevlakh City Stadium, YevlakhReferee: K. Rahimov

Imisli FK 13%
Draw 22%
Neftchi Baku 64%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Imisli FK vs Neftchi Baku overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Imisli FK vs Neftchi Baku

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityImisli FKDrawNeftchi Baku
Model10.4%20.9%68.7%
Market14.3%22.8%63.0%
Final13.3%22.3%64.4%
Edge-3.8%-1.9%+5.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Neftchi Baku

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 0.70.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Neftchi Baku below the model: +5.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Imisli FK ↓ / Neftchi Baku → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 12% 13% 9% 8% 1 10% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Imisli FK and Neftchi Baku expected goals

Imisli FK 0.70
Neftchi Baku 2.08

Total expected goals: 2.78

Imisli FK and Neftchi Baku attack and defence ratings

Imisli FK

Attack 0.61 -39%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Neftchi Baku

Attack 1.61 +61%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Imisli FK vs Neftchi Baku: result vs prediction

Imisli FK 2 – 3 Neftchi Baku

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Premyer Liqa

Before and after this match

Imisli FK vs Neftchi Baku markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Neftchi Baku 64.4% 1.55 +5.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.5% 1.90 — —
Both teams to score No 55.1% 1.81 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 86.7% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Neftchi Baku win 44.7% 2.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Imisli FK13.3%
Draw22.3%
Neftchi Baku64.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%
Both teams to scoreYes44.9%
No55.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)35.6%
12 (either side)77.7%
X2 (draw or away)86.7%
Handicap -1Neftchi Baku win44.7%
Push (exactly one goal)24.0%
Loss31.3%
Correct score (top 3)0-213.4%
0-112.0%
1-19.9%

Imisli FK vs Neftchi Baku stats

Imisli FK and Neftchi Baku recent form

newest first
Imisli FK LWLDDL
Neftchi Baku WLWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Imisli FK vs Neftchi Baku head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

1Imisli FK wins 1Draws 1Neftchi Baku wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-20Neftchi BakuImisli FKPremyer Liqa6-0
2025-11-23Neftchi BakuImisli FKPremyer Liqa2-3
2025-08-22Imisli FKNeftchi BakuPremyer Liqa0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Imisli FK vs Neftchi Baku odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 14.1%, draw 22.6%, away 63.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 6.00 3.90 1.48
1xBet 6.73 3.94 1.43
888Sport 6.50 3.75 1.44
Bet365 5.50 4.20 1.42
BetVictor 6.50 4.00 1.44
Betano 6.40 4.10 1.45
Betfair 6.50 4.10 1.40
Dafabet 6.60 4.20 1.41
Marathonbet 6.45 3.94 1.42
Pinnacle 6.23 4.05 1.46
Superbet 6.20 4.25 1.43
William Hill 6.00 3.70 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.34 ▲ +2.34
X 3.97 ▲ +0.22
2 1.44 ▼ -0.23

4 snapshots recorded, from .