Kapaz
vs
Qabala
1 – 0 Full time
| 46′ | M. BaD. Acquah | ||
| 65′ | V. Stina | ||
| 65′ | S. ShahniyarovF. Iskandarov | ||
| 65′ | M. UbochiomaBruno Silva | ||
| 70′ | N. AlasgarovBenito | ||
| 70′ | A. SamadovS. Seyidov | ||
| 72′ | K. Rossi | ||
| 74′ | E. AhmadovZ. Shakarkhanov | ||
| 74′ | Edson EduardoN. Aliyev | ||
| 81′ | N. Monzango | ||
| 82′ | K. KalungaR. Haciyev | ||
| 88′ | Benito | ||
| 89′ | V. StinaV. Abdullayev |
Kapaz vs Qabala overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kapaz vs Qabala
| Probability | Kapaz | Draw | Qabala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.6% | 32.4% | 48.1% |
| Market | 33.9% | 30.1% | 36.0% |
| Final | 30.4% | 30.7% | 39.0% |
| Edge | -14.4% | +2.3% | +12.1% |
Why Qabala
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.24 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Qabala below the model: +12.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kapaz and Qabala expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.93
Kapaz and Qabala attack and defence ratings
Kapaz
Qabala
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kapaz vs Qabala: result vs prediction
Kapaz 1 – 0 Qabala
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kapaz vs Qabala markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qabala | 39.0% | 2.56 | +12.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kapaz | 30.4% |
| Draw | 30.7% | |
| Qabala | 39.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.8% |
| No | 63.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Qabala win | 22.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.6% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.7% |
| 0-0 | 15.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
Kapaz vs Qabala stats
Kapaz vs Qabala head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Kapaz | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Qabala | Kapaz | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Kapaz | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Qabala | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa | 3-0 |
| 2024-04-28 | Qabala | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
| 2024-02-23 | Kapaz | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 2-1 |
| 2023-12-09 | Qabala | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa | 0-3 |
| 2023-10-01 | Kapaz | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
| 2023-05-27 | Qabala | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
| 2023-01-24 | Kapaz | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kapaz vs Qabala odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.9%, draw 30.1%, away 36.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.66 | 2.95 | 2.51 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.10 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.66 | 2.95 | 2.51 |
| Pinnacle | 2.70 | 3.06 | 2.54 |
| SBO | 2.58 | 2.91 | 2.38 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 2.88 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .