Zira
vs
Qarabag
1 – 1 Full time
| 27′ | VieirinhaI. Ibrahimli | ||
| 28′ | I. Ibrahimli | ||
| 50′ | Matheus Silva | ||
| 55′ | I. Djibrilla | ||
| 61′ | L. Bayere JuniorD. Volkovi | ||
| 64′ | M. QurbanlyO. Kashchuk | ||
| 64′ | Pedro BicalhoDiego Rosa | ||
| 64′ | J. MouaddibT. Ismaheel | ||
| 65′ | O. Kashchuk | ||
| 70′ | B. Varkonyi | ||
| 71′ | J. MontielS. Lobato | ||
| 81′ | I. DjibrillaA. Guseynov | ||
| 81′ | KtatauH. Hacyly | ||
| 85′ | H. Hacyly | ||
| 90′ | M. JankovicR. Khadra |
Zira vs Qarabag overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zira vs Qarabag
| Probability | Zira | Draw | Qarabag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.0% | 28.1% | 42.0% |
| Market | 28.1% | 26.2% | 45.7% |
| Final | 28.6% | 26.7% | 44.7% |
| Edge | +1.9% | +1.8% | -3.7% |
Why Qarabag
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zira and Qarabag expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Zira and Qarabag attack and defence ratings
Zira
Qarabag
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Zira vs Qarabag: result vs prediction
Zira 1 – 1 Qarabag
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zira vs Qarabag markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 44.7% | 2.24 | -3.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zira | 28.6% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Qarabag | 44.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% |
| No | 44.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 58.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 0-1 | 8.8% |
Zira vs Qarabag stats
Zira vs Qarabag head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Zira | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-3 |
| 2025-12-06 | Zira | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Qarabag | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-06 | Qarabag | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-02 | Zira | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 3-2 |
| 2024-11-10 | Qarabag | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 4-0 |
| 2024-09-01 | Zira | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-3 |
| 2024-06-02 | Qarabag | Zira | Cup | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-11 | Zira | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-10 | Qarabag | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Zira vs Qarabag odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.1%, draw 26.2%, away 45.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.26 | 3.48 | 1.97 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 3.20 | 3.48 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.27 | 3.65 | 1.95 |
| SBO | 2.80 | 2.99 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .