Qarabag
vs
Safa Baku
1 – 0 Full time
| 58′ | J. MouaddibT. Ismaheel | ||
| 58′ | J. MontielKady Borges | ||
| 61′ | M. Jankovic | ||
| 63′ | B. DansokoN. Aliyev | ||
| 68′ | D. MertensV. Pop | ||
| 68′ | F. YusifliO. Diaw | ||
| 72′ | O. Diaw | ||
| 76′ | R. CephasM. Qurbanly | ||
| 83′ | M. GuelE. Cafarov |
Qarabag vs Safa Baku overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Qarabag vs Safa Baku
| Probability | Qarabag | Draw | Safa Baku |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.3% | 20.2% | 9.5% |
| Market | 82.3% | 12.4% | 5.3% |
| Final | 79.3% | 14.3% | 6.4% |
| Edge | -12.0% | +7.8% | +4.2% |
Why Qarabag
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Qarabag and Safa Baku expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Qarabag and Safa Baku attack and defence ratings
Qarabag
Safa Baku
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Qarabag vs Safa Baku: result vs prediction
Qarabag 1 – 0 Safa Baku
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Qarabag vs Safa Baku markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 79.3% | 1.26 | -12.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.6% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win | 46.0% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 79.3% |
| Draw | 14.3% | |
| Safa Baku | 6.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.7% |
| No | 56.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 20.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win | 46.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 30.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | |
| 3-0 | 9.8% |
Qarabag vs Safa Baku stats
Qarabag and Safa Baku recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Qarabag and Safa Baku going into this match
Safa Baku record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Qarabag vs Safa Baku head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Qarabag vs Safa Baku odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 82.3%, draw 12.4%, away 5.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.08 | 7.30 | 17.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.14 | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.10 | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| Betano | 1.14 | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| Betfair | 1.10 | 7.50 | 17.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.08 | 7.30 | 17.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.12 | 8.17 | 14.66 |
| SBO | 1.10 | 6.47 | 10.12 |
| William Hill | 1.12 | 7.00 | 17.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .