Safa Baku
vs
Turan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Turan
0 β 1 Predicted score Β· 16% model probability
Safa Baku vs Turan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Safa Baku vs Turan
| Probability | Safa Baku | Draw | Turan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.7% | 27.8% | 57.5% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 14.7% | 27.8% | 57.5% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Turan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Safa Baku vs Turan match preview
Safa Baku faces Turan in the Premyer Liqa with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. Safa Baku has struggled recently, recording four losses in their last six matches, while Turan shows a more positive trend with three wins in their last six games. The model assigns a 15% probability of a Safa Baku win, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 57% likelihood of a Turan victory.
The expected goals suggest a significant disparity, with Safa Baku at 0.66 and Turan at 1.53. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 16% probability. Additionally, there is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Safa Baku and Turan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.19
Safa Baku and Turan attack and defence ratings
Safa Baku
Turan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Safa Baku vs Turan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Turan | 57.5% | 1.74 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.1% | 1.64 | β | β |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.3% | 1.17 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.5% | 2.36 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Safa Baku | 14.7% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Turan | 57.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.9% |
| No | 61.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Turan win | 31.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.2% | |
| Loss | 42.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.0% |
| 0-2 | 13.2% | |
| 1-1 | 12.4% |
Safa Baku vs Turan stats
Safa Baku and Turan recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Safa Baku and Turan season so far
Safa Baku record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Turan record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.