Zira
vs
Şamaxı FK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Zira
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Zira vs Şamaxı FK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zira vs Şamaxı FK
| Probability | Zira | Draw | Şamaxı FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.5% | 30.3% | 30.3% |
| Market | 51.7% | 27.4% | 20.8% |
| Final | 48.7% | 28.1% | 23.2% |
| Edge | -12.3% | +2.8% | +9.4% |
Why Zira
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Zira vs Şamaxı FK match preview
Zira will host Şamaxı FK in the Premyer Liqa on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 40% probability of a Zira victory, while both a draw and a Şamaxı FK win are at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Zira, with an 11% probability. Expected goals suggest Zira is projected to score 1.29, compared to Şamaxı FK's 1.09.
In terms of recent form, Zira has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Şamaxı FK has had a more stable performance with three draws and two wins in their recent outings. The last three encounters between the teams show a balanced competition, with Zira winning once, Şamaxı FK also winning once, and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zira and Şamaxı FK expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Zira and Şamaxı FK attack and defence ratings
Zira
Şamaxı FK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zira vs Şamaxı FK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zira | 48.7% | 2.05 | -12.3% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zira | 48.7% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Şamaxı FK | 23.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.4% |
| No | 50.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Zira win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 60.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 0-0 | 10.6% |
Zira vs Şamaxı FK stats
Zira and Şamaxı FK recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zira and Şamaxı FK season so far
Zira record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Şamaxı FK record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Zira vs Şamaxı FK head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Zira | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Şamaxı FK | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Zira | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Zira | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa | 3-0 |
| 2025-01-24 | Şamaxı FK | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-04 | Zira | Şamaxı FK | Cup | 3-1 |
| 2024-11-02 | Şamaxı FK | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 0-2 |
| 2024-08-25 | Zira | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
| 2023-05-06 | Şamaxı FK | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 0-3 |
| 2023-03-25 | Zira | Şamaxı FK | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Zira vs Şamaxı FK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.7%, draw 27.4%, away 20.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.24 | 4.32 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.40 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 3.35 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.24 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 3.33 | 4.65 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.10 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .