Şamaxı FK
vs
Safa Baku
Garuda Lions Prediction: Şamaxı FK
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku
| Probability | Şamaxı FK | Draw | Safa Baku |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.5% | 27.0% | 15.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.5% | 27.0% | 15.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Şamaxı FK
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku match preview
Şamaxı FK is favored to win against Safa Baku with a 57% probability, while a draw stands at 27% and Safa Baku at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring with a 14% likelihood. Expected goals for Şamaxı FK are 1.61, compared to 0.73 for Safa Baku, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home team.
In terms of recent form, Şamaxı FK has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. In contrast, Safa Baku has struggled, losing four of their last five encounters, with a single win. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 41%, while both teams scoring is projected at 43%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku attack and defence ratings
Şamaxı FK
Safa Baku
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Şamaxı FK | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.5% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Şamaxı FK | 57.5% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Safa Baku | 15.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.5% |
| No | 57.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Şamaxı FK win | 32.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.5% | |
| Loss | 42.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.4% |
| 2-0 | 12.5% | |
| 1-1 | 12.4% |
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku stats
Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku season so far
Şamaxı FK record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Safa Baku record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.