Şamaxı FK
vs
Safa Baku
3 – 2 Full time
| 5′ | E. Cafarov | ||
| 27′ | F. Yusifli | ||
| 50′ | C. Mamengi | ||
| 52′ | M. Musayev | ||
| 56′ | R. Huseynli | ||
| 65′ | Jota | ||
| 65′ | E. AdilkhanovH. Ismayilov | ||
| 65′ | O. MammadovD. Dego | ||
| 65′ | A. ShuaibuT. Akhvlediani | ||
| 67′ | E. CafarovLuis Felipe | ||
| 67′ | R. HuseynliN. Quliyev | ||
| 77′ | F. YusifliV. Pop | ||
| 77′ | M. GuelV. Qanbarov | ||
| 81′ | H. Ismayilov | ||
| 82′ | A. BoualiU. Cahangirov | ||
| 90′ | R. Apolinario | ||
| 90′ | A. Dragu |
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku
| Probability | Şamaxı FK | Draw | Safa Baku |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.9% | 27.7% | 14.4% |
| Market | 51.6% | 26.9% | 21.5% |
| Final | 53.1% | 27.1% | 19.7% |
| Edge | +1.6% | +0.2% | -1.8% |
Why Şamaxı FK
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.19
Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku attack and defence ratings
Şamaxı FK
Safa Baku
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku: result vs prediction
Şamaxı FK 3 – 2 Safa Baku
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Şamaxı FK | 53.1% | 1.88 | +1.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.1% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Şamaxı FK | 53.1% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Safa Baku | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.6% |
| No | 61.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Şamaxı FK win | 31.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 42.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.1% |
| 2-0 | 13.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.3% |
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku stats
Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku going into this match
Şamaxı FK record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Safa Baku record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.5 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.6%, draw 26.9%, away 21.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 3.45 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 3.51 | 4.27 |
| SBO | 1.73 | 3.21 | 3.89 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .