Qarabag
vs
Neftchi Baku
3 – 3 Full time
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku
| Probability | Qarabag | Draw | Neftchi Baku |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.2% | 29.3% | 38.5% |
| Market | 50.0% | 26.5% | 23.6% |
| Final | 45.5% | 27.2% | 27.3% |
| Edge | -17.8% | +2.8% | +15.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Qarabag and Neftchi Baku expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Qarabag and Neftchi Baku attack and defence ratings
Qarabag
Neftchi Baku
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku: result vs prediction
Qarabag 3 – 3 Neftchi Baku
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 45.5% | 2.20 | -17.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 45.5% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Neftchi Baku | 27.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win | 13.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 68.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 9.3% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku stats
Qarabag and Neftchi Baku recent form
| Qarabag |
WWDWWL |
| Neftchi Baku |
DWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Qarabag and Neftchi Baku going into this match
Qarabag record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Neftchi Baku record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Neftchi Baku | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Neftchi Baku | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-5 |
| 2025-11-09 | Qarabag | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Qarabag | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-16 | Neftchi Baku | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-01 | Neftchi Baku | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 0-3 |
| 2024-09-20 | Qarabag | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 4-0 |
| 2024-05-04 | Qarabag | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 5-0 |
| 2024-04-24 | Qarabag | Neftchi Baku | Cup | 4-1 |
| 2024-04-02 | Neftchi Baku | Qarabag | Cup | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.0%, draw 26.2%, away 23.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.40 | 3.94 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.45 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.40 | 3.84 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.59 | 3.80 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .