Neftchi Baku
vs
Turan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Neftchi Baku
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 12% model probability
Neftchi Baku vs Turan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Neftchi Baku vs Turan
| Probability | Neftchi Baku | Draw | Turan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.9% | 28.2% | 20.9% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 50.9% | 28.2% | 20.9% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Neftchi Baku
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Neftchi Baku vs Turan match preview
Neftchi Baku enters this match with a probability of 51% to win against Turan, who has a 21% chance of victory, while a draw stands at 28%. The expected goals for Neftchi Baku is 1.53, compared to Turan's 0.90, indicating a potential edge for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 12%.
In terms of recent form, Neftchi Baku has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last six matches. Turan, on the other hand, has been slightly more consistent with three wins, two draws, and one loss during the same period. The head-to-head record shows Neftchi Baku has not won in their last three encounters, with Turan winning twice and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Neftchi Baku and Turan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Neftchi Baku and Turan attack and defence ratings
Neftchi Baku
Turan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Neftchi Baku vs Turan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neftchi Baku | 50.9% | 1.96 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.5% | 1.91 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% | 1.26 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.04 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neftchi Baku | 50.9% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Turan | 20.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.5% |
| No | 52.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Neftchi Baku win | 26.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | |
| 2-0 | 10.3% |
Neftchi Baku vs Turan stats
Neftchi Baku and Turan recent form
| Neftchi Baku |
DWWWLW |
| Turan |
WWDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Neftchi Baku and Turan season so far
Neftchi Baku record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Turan record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Neftchi Baku vs Turan head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Neftchi Baku | Turan | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Turan | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Neftchi Baku | Turan | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.