Safa Baku
vs
Kapaz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kapaz
0 β 1 Predicted score Β· 14% model probability
Safa Baku vs Kapaz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Safa Baku vs Kapaz
| Probability | Safa Baku | Draw | Kapaz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.7% | 32.2% | 44.1% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 23.7% | 32.2% | 44.1% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Kapaz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Safa Baku vs Kapaz match preview
Safa Baku faces Kapaz in the upcoming Premyer Liqa match, with the model predicting a 24% chance of victory for Safa Baku, a 32% likelihood of a draw, and a 44% chance for Kapaz to win. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 14%. Safa Baku's recent form has been poor, with six consecutive losses, while Kapaz has shown some resilience, recording two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches.
In terms of expected goals, Safa Baku is projected to score 0.83, while Kapaz is expected to net 1.22. The model suggests a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 41% chance that both teams will find the back of the net during the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Safa Baku and Kapaz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.05
Safa Baku and Kapaz attack and defence ratings
Safa Baku
Kapaz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Safa Baku vs Kapaz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kapaz | 44.1% | 2.27 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | β | β |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | 1.31 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Safa Baku | 23.7% |
| Draw | 32.2% | |
| Kapaz | 44.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kapaz win | 20.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.5% |
| 1-1 | 14.3% | |
| 0-0 | 14.2% |
Safa Baku vs Kapaz stats
Safa Baku and Kapaz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Safa Baku and Kapaz season so far
Safa Baku record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.5 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Kapaz record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.