Sumqayıt
vs
Safa Baku
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sumqayıt
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.01.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku
| Probability | Sumqayıt | Draw | Safa Baku |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.8% | 21.5% | 15.7% |
| Market | 53.1% | 26.7% | 20.1% |
| Final | 55.5% | 25.4% | 19.0% |
| Edge | +2.4% | -1.3% | -1.1% |
Why Sumqayıt
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sumqayıt below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.2% per unit staked (our 55.5% × 1.76 − 1).
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku match preview
Sumqayıt enters this match with a 63% probability of winning against Safa Baku, who has struggled recently, recording six consecutive losses. The expected goals for Sumqayıt stand at 2.17, while Safa Baku is projected to score only 1.01 goals. This suggests a significant disparity in attacking performance between the two teams.
The most likely scoreline according to our model is 2-1 in favor of Sumqayıt, which has a 10% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and a 57% probability that both teams will score. Sumqayıt's recent form shows mixed results, while Safa Baku's recent performance has been consistently poor.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sumqayıt and Safa Baku expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.18
Sumqayıt and Safa Baku attack and defence ratings
Sumqayıt
Safa Baku
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sumqayıt | 55.5% | 1.80 | +2.4% | 1.76 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sumqayıt win | 40.4% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sumqayıt | 55.5% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Safa Baku | 19.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sumqayıt win | 40.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 37.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.8% |
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku stats
Sumqayıt and Safa Baku recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sumqayıt and Safa Baku season so far
Sumqayıt record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Safa Baku record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.1%, draw 26.7%, away 20.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.38 | 4.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.45 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.38 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.54 | 4.29 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.25 | 4.50 |