Imisli FK
vs
Sumqayıt
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sumqayıt
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.12.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sumqayıt is the favourite, not a value bet.
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt
| Probability | Imisli FK | Draw | Sumqayıt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.1% | 27.5% | 46.4% |
| Market | 29.8% | 29.7% | 40.5% |
| Final | 28.9% | 29.1% | 42.0% |
| Edge | -0.9% | -0.5% | +1.5% |
Why Sumqayıt
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.12.
Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (our 42.0% × 2.27 − 1).
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt match preview
Imisli FK faces Sumqayıt in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a competitive contest. According to our model, Imisli FK has a 26% chance of winning, while Sumqayıt is favored with a 46% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Expected goals indicate Imisli FK at 1.13 and Sumqayıt at 1.56, reflecting a stronger offensive outlook for the visitors.
Recent form shows Imisli FK struggling with a record of L-W-W-L-L-L, while Sumqayıt has been more resilient with D-L-W-W-D-D. In their last two encounters, Sumqayıt has secured two wins against Imisli FK, adding to their confidence heading into this fixture. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 50%, and both teams scoring is projected at 55%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Imisli FK and Sumqayıt expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Imisli FK and Sumqayıt attack and defence ratings
Imisli FK
Sumqayıt
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sumqayıt | 42.0% | 2.38 | +1.5% | 2.27 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Imisli FK | 28.9% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Sumqayıt | 42.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% |
| No | 45.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sumqayıt win | 24.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 53.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-2 | 9.4% |
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt stats
Imisli FK and Sumqayıt recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Imisli FK and Sumqayıt season so far
Imisli FK record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sumqayıt record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Imisli FK | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa | 0-2 |
| 2025-12-09 | Sumqayıt | Imisli FK | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.8%, draw 29.7%, away 40.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.99 | 3.02 | 2.26 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.22 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.10 | 2.22 |
| Marathonbet | 2.91 | 3.02 | 2.24 |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 3.06 | 2.27 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .