Sabah FA
vs
Şamaxı FK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sabah FA
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.53.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sabah FA is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK
| Probability | Sabah FA | Draw | Şamaxı FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.5% | 22.6% | 26.9% |
| Market | 73.6% | 17.2% | 9.2% |
| Final | 67.8% | 18.5% | 13.7% |
| Edge | -5.8% | +1.4% | +4.4% |
Why Sabah FA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.53.
Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.2% per unit staked (our 67.8% × 1.25 − 1).
Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK match preview
Sabah FA faces Şamaxı FK in the Premyer Liqa on November 8, 2026. According to our model, Sabah FA has a 61% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 21% and Şamaxı FK at 18%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of Sabah FA, with a 10% chance. The expected goals are 2.29 for Sabah FA and 1.19 for Şamaxı FK, indicating a strong offensive performance from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Sabah FA has recorded a sequence of L-D-L-W-W-D, while Şamaxı FK has L-L-W-D-W-D. Historically, in their last three encounters, Sabah FA has secured 2 wins and 1 draw against Şamaxı FK, who have yet to win. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 68%, and both teams scoring is projected at 63%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sabah FA and Şamaxı FK expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.65
Sabah FA and Şamaxı FK attack and defence ratings
Sabah FA
Şamaxı FK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabah FA | 67.8% | 1.47 | -5.8% | 1.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.3% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.5% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabah FA | 67.8% |
| Draw | 18.5% | |
| Şamaxı FK | 13.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.8% |
| No | 30.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabah FA win | 30.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 49.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK stats
Sabah FA and Şamaxı FK recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sabah FA and Şamaxı FK season so far
Sabah FA record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Şamaxı FK record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Şamaxı FK | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa | 0-3 |
| 2025-11-23 | Sabah FA | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Şamaxı FK | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.6%, draw 17.2%, away 9.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.22 | 5.25 | 10.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.23 | 5.80 | 8.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.21 | 5.25 | 9.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.23 | 5.79 | 9.45 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 10.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .