Safa Baku
vs
Araz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Araz
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this, so it is not a value bet.
Safa Baku vs Araz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Safa Baku vs Araz
| Probability | Safa Baku | Draw | Araz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.5% | 28.4% | 39.1% |
| Market | 36.3% | 27.5% | 36.1% |
| Final | 35.4% | 27.7% | 36.9% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +0.2% | +0.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (our 36.9% × 2.56 − 1).
Safa Baku vs Araz match preview
Safa Baku faces Araz in the Premyer Liqa with both teams struggling for form. Safa Baku's recent results show a streak of six matches without a win, with their latest outcome being a draw. Araz has also experienced difficulties, managing only one draw in their last six matches, which includes five losses.
According to our model, the probabilities for this match show Araz slightly favored at 37%, while Safa Baku stands at 34% and a draw at 28%. The expected goals tally indicates a close contest, with Safa Baku at 1.26 and Araz at 1.40. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2 in favor of Araz, with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Safa Baku and Araz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Safa Baku and Araz attack and defence ratings
Safa Baku
Araz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Safa Baku vs Araz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Araz | 36.9% | 2.71 | +0.8% | 2.56 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Safa Baku | 35.4% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Araz | 36.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% |
| No | 44.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Araz win | 19.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 60.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 0-1 | 8.5% |
Safa Baku vs Araz stats
Safa Baku and Araz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Safa Baku and Araz season so far
Safa Baku record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Araz record
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Safa Baku vs Araz head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Safa Baku vs Araz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.3%, draw 27.5%, away 36.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.46 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.49 | 3.35 | 2.49 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.39 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .