Zira
vs
Qabala
Garuda Lions Prediction: Zira
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.91.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this β Zira is the favourite, not a value bet.
Zira vs Qabala overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zira vs Qabala
| Probability | Zira | Draw | Qabala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.4% | 26.4% | 19.1% |
| Market | 56.6% | 25.5% | 17.9% |
| Final | 56.0% | 25.8% | 18.2% |
| Edge | -0.5% | +0.2% | +0.3% |
Why Zira
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.91.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.5% per unit staked (our 56.0% Γ 1.65 β 1).
Zira vs Qabala match preview
Zira faces Qabala in the upcoming Premyer Liqa match, with Zira holding a 55% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Zira stand at 1.68, while Qabala is projected to score 0.91. Recent form shows Zira with a mixed record of D-W-D-D-L-D, while Qabala has struggled, recording D-W-L-L-L-L in their last matches.
Historically, Zira has dominated their encounters with Qabala, winning all three of their last meetings without a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 50% chance that both teams will score, and the probability of over 2.5 goals is at 48%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zira and Qabala expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Zira and Qabala attack and defence ratings
Zira
Qabala
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zira vs Qabala markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zira | 56.0% | 1.78 | -0.5% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.6% | 2.20 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zira | 56.0% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Qabala | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Zira win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 45.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | |
| 2-0 | 10.6% |
Zira vs Qabala stats
Zira and Qabala recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zira and Qabala season so far
Zira record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qabala record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 10 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zira vs Qabala head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Zira | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Zira | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Qabala | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-24 | Qabala | Zira | Cup | 0-2 |
| 2024-04-07 | Zira | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 4-0 |
| 2024-04-03 | Zira | Qabala | Cup | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-04 | Qabala | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Zira | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-02 | Qabala | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-07 | Qabala | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Zira vs Qabala odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.6%, draw 25.5%, away 17.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.50 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.65 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.61 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 3.40 | 5.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 3.72 | 5.43 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .