Qabala
vs
Qarabag
Garuda Lions Prediction: Qarabag
0 – 2 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.84.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Qabala vs Qarabag overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Qabala vs Qarabag
| Probability | Qabala | Draw | Qarabag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.9% | 23.7% | 61.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 14.9% | 23.7% | 61.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Qarabag
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Qabala vs Qarabag match preview
Qabala faces Qarabag in the Premyer Liqa with a significant disparity in expected performance. Our model assigns a 15% probability of a Qabala victory, while Qarabag stands at 61%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with an expected goals tally of 0.84 for Qabala and 1.90 for Qarabag. Recent form shows Qabala struggling with a record of W-L-L-L-L-W, while Qarabag has been more consistent, recording D-W-W-D-W-W.
In their last three encounters, Qabala has yet to secure a victory against Qarabag, with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 52%, and both teams scoring is projected at 49%. With a confidence grade of C, the match presents an intriguing challenge for both sides.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Qabala and Qarabag expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.75
Qabala and Qarabag attack and defence ratings
Qabala
Qarabag
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Qabala vs Qarabag markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.1% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.6% | 2.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qabala | 14.9% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Qarabag | 61.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.5% |
| No | 50.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 38.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win | 37.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 38.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 11.6% |
| 1-1 | 11.3% | |
| 0-1 | 11.2% |
Qabala vs Qarabag stats
Qabala and Qarabag recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Qabala and Qarabag season so far
Qabala record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.
Qarabag record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Qabala vs Qarabag head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Qabala | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Qabala | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-26 | Qarabag | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.