Sabah FA
vs
Qarabag
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sabah FA
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.14.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence β both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Sabah FA vs Qarabag overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sabah FA vs Qarabag
| Probability | Sabah FA | Draw | Qarabag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.3% | 26.3% | 24.4% |
| Market | 39.7% | 25.9% | 34.4% |
| Final | 42.1% | 26.0% | 31.9% |
| Edge | +2.4% | +0.1% | -2.5% |
Why Sabah FA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.14.
- The market prices Sabah FA below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (our 42.1% Γ 2.30 β 1).
Sabah FA vs Qarabag match preview
Sabah FA faces Qarabag in the Premyer Liqa with a probability model indicating a 42% chance of a Sabah FA victory, a 26% likelihood of a draw, and a 32% chance for Qarabag to win. The expected goals for Sabah FA stand at 1.70, while Qarabag is projected at 1.14. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Sabah FA, occurring with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Sabah FA has recorded a mixed set of results with one loss, followed by three wins and a draw, while Qarabag remains unbeaten in their last six matches, with four wins and two draws. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Sabah FA has secured four victories, Qarabag has one win, and there have been five draws. The model indicates a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sabah FA and Qarabag expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Sabah FA and Qarabag attack and defence ratings
Sabah FA
Qarabag
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sabah FA vs Qarabag markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabah FA | 42.1% | 2.37 | +2.4% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% | 1.76 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.7% | 1.97 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabah FA | 42.1% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Qarabag | 31.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% |
| No | 43.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabah FA win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 50.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 8.8% |
Sabah FA vs Qarabag stats
Sabah FA and Qarabag recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sabah FA and Qarabag season so far
Sabah FA record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Qarabag record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sabah FA vs Qarabag head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Sabah FA | Qarabag | Cup | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Qarabag | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Qarabag | Sabah FA | Cup | 2-2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Qarabag | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa | 3-3 |
| 2025-12-18 | Sabah FA | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Qarabag | Sabah FA | Cup | 2-3 |
| 2025-04-27 | Sabah FA | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Qarabag | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-07 | Sabah FA | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Qarabag | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sabah FA vs Qarabag odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.7%, draw 25.9%, away 34.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.24 | 3.45 | 2.59 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.55 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.24 | 3.45 | 2.59 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .