Imisli FK
vs
Şamaxı FK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Şamaxı FK
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.99.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK
| Probability | Imisli FK | Draw | Şamaxı FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.0% | 28.7% | 47.3% |
| Market | 33.9% | 29.5% | 36.6% |
| Final | 31.5% | 29.3% | 39.3% |
| Edge | -2.5% | -0.2% | +2.7% |
Why Şamaxı FK
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Şamaxı FK below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.1% per unit staked (our 39.3% × 2.55 − 1).
Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK match preview
Imisli FK faces Şamaxı FK in an upcoming Premyer Liqa match, with the probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Imisli FK holds a 31% chance of winning, while Şamaxı FK has a 39% probability of victory, and a draw stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1 in favor of Şamaxı FK, with expected goals of 0.99 for Imisli FK and 1.48 for Şamaxı FK.
Recent form shows Imisli FK struggling with one win in their last six matches, while Şamaxı FK has been more consistent, recording three wins and three draws in the same period. In their last six head-to-head encounters, Imisli FK has not secured a win, with four matches ending in draws and two victories for Şamaxı FK.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Imisli FK and Şamaxı FK expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Imisli FK and Şamaxı FK attack and defence ratings
Imisli FK
Şamaxı FK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Şamaxı FK | 39.3% | 2.55 | +2.7% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Imisli FK | 31.5% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Şamaxı FK | 39.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.7% |
| No | 50.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Şamaxı FK win | 24.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 52.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 11.3% | |
| 0-0 | 9.7% |
Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK stats
Imisli FK and Şamaxı FK recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Imisli FK and Şamaxı FK season so far
Imisli FK record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Şamaxı FK record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Şamaxı FK | Imisli FK | Premyer Liqa | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Imisli FK | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Şamaxı FK | Imisli FK | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-29 | Imisli FK | Şamaxı FK | Birinci Dasta | 0-0 |
| 2023-12-14 | Şamaxı FK | Imisli FK | Birinci Dasta | 0-0 |
| 2023-09-28 | Imisli FK | Şamaxı FK | Birinci Dasta | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.9%, draw 29.5%, away 36.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.64 | 3.04 | 2.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 2.88 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.00 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.20 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.20 | 2.46 |
| Marathonbet | 2.64 | 3.04 | 2.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 3.25 | 2.48 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .