Şamaxı FK
vs
Neftchi Baku
Garuda Lions Prediction: Neftchi Baku
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.23.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku
| Probability | Şamaxı FK | Draw | Neftchi Baku |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.1% | 22.8% | 56.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 21.1% | 22.8% | 56.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Neftchi Baku
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.23.
Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku match preview
In the upcoming match between Şamaxı FK and Neftchi Baku, the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for Neftchi Baku, with a 56% chance of winning compared to 21% for Şamaxı FK and a 23% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest Neftchi Baku is likely to score 2.09, while Şamaxı FK is projected to net 1.23. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%.
Recent form shows Şamaxı FK with a mixed record of L-W-D-W-D-W, while Neftchi Baku has been more consistent with D-D-D-W-W-W. In their last three encounters, Şamaxı FK has not secured a win against Neftchi Baku, recording 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. The model also indicates a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 63%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Şamaxı FK and Neftchi Baku expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.32
Şamaxı FK and Neftchi Baku attack and defence ratings
Şamaxı FK
Neftchi Baku
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neftchi Baku | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Şamaxı FK | 21.1% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Neftchi Baku | 56.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.0% |
| No | 37.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Neftchi Baku win | 34.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 43.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.9% |
Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku stats
Şamaxı FK and Neftchi Baku recent form
| Şamaxı FK |
LWDWDW |
| Neftchi Baku |
DDDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Şamaxı FK and Neftchi Baku season so far
Şamaxı FK record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Neftchi Baku record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Neftchi Baku | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa | 3-0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Şamaxı FK | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Neftchi Baku | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.