Neftchi Baku
vs
Kapaz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Neftchi Baku
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.99.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Neftchi Baku is the favourite, not a value bet.
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz
| Probability | Neftchi Baku | Draw | Kapaz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.0% | 26.7% | 21.3% |
| Market | 68.2% | 20.1% | 11.7% |
| Final | 64.2% | 21.7% | 14.1% |
| Edge | -4.1% | +1.6% | +2.4% |
Why Neftchi Baku
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.99.
Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.7% per unit staked (our 64.2% × 1.36 − 1).
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz match preview
Neftchi Baku is favored to win against Kapaz with a 64% probability, while a draw stands at 22% and Kapaz at 14%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring at an 11% likelihood. Expected goals for Neftchi Baku are 1.66, compared to Kapaz's 0.99, indicating a stronger offensive outlook for the home side.
Both teams have shown solid recent form, with Neftchi Baku recording two wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Kapaz has achieved four wins and two draws in the same period. In their last ten encounters, Neftchi Baku has dominated with seven wins, while Kapaz has secured two victories and one draw. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Neftchi Baku and Kapaz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Neftchi Baku and Kapaz attack and defence ratings
Neftchi Baku
Kapaz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neftchi Baku | 64.2% | 1.56 | -4.1% | 1.36 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neftchi Baku | 64.2% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Kapaz | 14.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% |
| No | 47.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Neftchi Baku win | 28.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 48.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz stats
Neftchi Baku and Kapaz recent form
| Neftchi Baku |
WDDDWW |
| Kapaz |
WWDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Neftchi Baku and Kapaz season so far
Neftchi Baku record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kapaz record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Kapaz | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Kapaz | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-01 | Neftchi Baku | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa | 5-1 |
| 2025-05-04 | Neftchi Baku | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-05 | Kapaz | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-28 | Neftchi Baku | Kapaz | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-05 | Kapaz | Neftchi Baku | Cup | 0-2 |
| 2024-12-15 | Neftchi Baku | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-04 | Kapaz | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 4-3 |
| 2024-05-10 | Neftchi Baku | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa | 5-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.2%, draw 20.1%, away 11.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 4.45 | 8.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 4.50 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.36 | 4.60 | 7.10 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.34 | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.29 | 4.45 | 8.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.32 | 4.95 | 8.12 |
| SBO | 1.32 | 4.24 | 6.66 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.33 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .