Araz
vs
Qabala
Garuda Lions Prediction: Araz
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
Araz vs Qabala overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Araz vs Qabala
| Probability | Araz | Draw | Qabala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.6% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 41.6% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Araz vs Qabala match preview
Araz faces Qabala in a tightly contested match, with both teams having a 35% probability of winning according to our model, while a draw stands at 30%. Araz has struggled recently, recording six consecutive losses, while Qabala has experienced a mix of results, including one win in their last six matches. The expected goals for Araz is 1.20, slightly lower than Qabala's 1.22, indicating a close matchup.
In their last three head-to-head encounters, Araz has secured one win, while Qabala has also claimed one victory, alongside one draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1 in favor of Qabala, with a 10% likelihood. The chances for over 2.5 goals stand at 44%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 51%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Araz and Qabala expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Araz and Qabala attack and defence ratings
Araz
Qabala
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Araz vs Qabala markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Araz | 41.6% | 2.40 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.8% | 1.41 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.4% | 1.71 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Araz | 41.6% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Qabala | 29.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% |
| No | 48.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Araz win | 20.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 58.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | |
| 0-0 | 9.4% |
Araz vs Qabala stats
Araz and Qabala recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Araz and Qabala season so far
Araz record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qabala record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Araz vs Qabala head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Qabala | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Qabala | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Araz | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.