Sumqayıt
vs
Araz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sumqayıt
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Sumqayıt vs Araz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sumqayıt vs Araz
| Probability | Sumqayıt | Draw | Araz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 25.8% | 26.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.8% | 25.8% | 26.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sumqayıt
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.25.
Sumqayıt vs Araz match preview
Sumqayıt and Araz are set to clash in the Premyer Liqa, with Sumqayıt holding a 48% probability of winning according to our model, while both a draw and an Araz victory stand at 26%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of Sumqayıt, with a 10% likelihood. The model suggests a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability that both teams will score during the match.
In terms of recent form, Sumqayıt has struggled with two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Araz has recorded one draw and five losses in the same period. Head-to-head statistics show Sumqayıt winning two of the last three encounters, with Araz securing one victory. The expected goals for Sumqayıt are 1.73, compared to Araz's 1.24.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sumqayıt and Araz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Sumqayıt and Araz attack and defence ratings
Sumqayıt
Araz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sumqayıt vs Araz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sumqayıt | 47.8% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sumqayıt | 47.8% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Araz | 26.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% |
| No | 40.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sumqayıt win | 26.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 7.7% |
Sumqayıt vs Araz stats
Sumqayıt and Araz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sumqayıt and Araz season so far
Sumqayıt record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Araz record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Sumqayıt vs Araz head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Sumqayıt | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Araz | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Sumqayıt | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.