Sumqayıt
vs
Araz
2 – 1 Full time
| 21′ | I. ParoBruno Franco | ||
| 32′ | A. Fernandez | ||
| 62′ | R. Vasquez | ||
| 65′ | C. BoliR. Muradov | ||
| 80′ | A. FernandezC. Nuriyev | ||
| 82′ | N. Ahmadzada | ||
| 84′ | E. MustafaevR. Kehat | ||
| 84′ | Lucas Black | ||
| 84′ | A. Salyanskiy | ||
| 85′ | A. Salyanskiy | ||
| 85′ | A. Salyanskiy | ||
| 86′ | R. VasquezA. Suleymali | ||
| 88′ | Keffel | ||
| 90′ | N. AhmadzadaI. Barker | ||
| 90′ | M. BangreN. Orucov | ||
| 90′ | A. Suleymali |
Sumqayıt vs Araz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sumqayıt vs Araz
| Probability | Sumqayıt | Draw | Araz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.4% | 22.0% | 19.5% |
| Market | 41.3% | 28.2% | 30.5% |
| Final | 45.6% | 26.7% | 27.8% |
| Edge | +4.3% | -1.6% | -2.7% |
Why Sumqayıt
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sumqayıt below our published probability: +4.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sumqayıt and Araz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Sumqayıt and Araz attack and defence ratings
Sumqayıt
Araz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sumqayıt vs Araz: result vs prediction
Sumqayıt 2 – 1 Araz
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sumqayıt vs Araz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sumqayıt | 45.6% | 2.20 | +4.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sumqayıt | 45.6% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Araz | 27.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% |
| No | 37.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sumqayıt win | 36.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 41.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
Sumqayıt vs Araz stats
Sumqayıt and Araz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sumqayıt and Araz going into this match
Sumqayıt record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Araz record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sumqayıt vs Araz head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Sumqayıt | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Araz | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Sumqayıt | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 3-2 |
| 2025-04-07 | Araz | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Sumqayıt | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-10 | Araz | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-30 | Sumqayıt | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-31 | Sumqayıt | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-28 | Araz | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-04 | Sumqayıt | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sumqayıt vs Araz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 28.2%, away 30.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.18 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.25 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.21 | 3.25 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.18 | 2.94 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.27 | 3.05 |
| SBO | 2.15 | 3.08 | 2.77 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .