Qabala
vs
Neftchi Baku
0 – 3 Full time
| 25′ | Breno Almeida | ||
| 46′ | E. MahmudovGustavo Klismahn | ||
| 46′ | E. AhmadovI. Akinade | ||
| 46′ | D. SavicL. Tupta | ||
| 54′ | V. Sevelj | ||
| 65′ | A. Skribek | ||
| 66′ | V. SeveljI. Mathew | ||
| 66′ | F. VargasA. Akinyemi | ||
| 67′ | S. ShahniyarovZ. Shakarkhanov | ||
| 77′ | R. Abbasov | ||
| 77′ | K. MabeaN. Aliyev | ||
| 80′ | Breno AlmeidaB. Sambou | ||
| 86′ | A. Akinyemi | ||
| 90′ | L. Tupta |
Qabala vs Neftchi Baku overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Qabala vs Neftchi Baku
| Probability | Qabala | Draw | Neftchi Baku |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.0% | 28.4% | 48.6% |
| Market | 14.9% | 23.5% | 61.6% |
| Final | 16.9% | 24.7% | 58.4% |
| Edge | +8.1% | +4.9% | -13.0% |
Why Neftchi Baku
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Qabala and Neftchi Baku expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
Qabala and Neftchi Baku attack and defence ratings
Qabala
Neftchi Baku
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Qabala vs Neftchi Baku: result vs prediction
Qabala 0 – 3 Neftchi Baku
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Qabala vs Neftchi Baku markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neftchi Baku | 58.4% | 1.71 | -13.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qabala | 16.9% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Neftchi Baku | 58.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.5% |
| No | 50.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Neftchi Baku win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 51.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.6% |
Qabala vs Neftchi Baku stats
Qabala and Neftchi Baku recent form
| Qabala |
LWDLLW |
| Neftchi Baku |
WWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Qabala and Neftchi Baku going into this match
Qabala record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
Neftchi Baku record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qabala vs Neftchi Baku head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Qabala | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 1-3 |
| 2026-02-10 | Neftchi Baku | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Qabala | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 0-2 |
| 2024-03-29 | Qabala | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 0-1 |
| 2024-01-28 | Neftchi Baku | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 3-1 |
| 2023-11-05 | Qabala | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 0-2 |
| 2023-08-27 | Neftchi Baku | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 2-0 |
| 2023-06-03 | Neftchi Baku | Qabala | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2023-04-14 | Neftchi Baku | Qabala | Premyer Liqa | 1-2 |
| 2023-02-10 | Qabala | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Qabala vs Neftchi Baku odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.9%, draw 23.5%, away 61.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.38 | 3.80 | 1.45 |
| Bet365 | 7.00 | 3.75 | 1.42 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 3.80 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 5.50 | 3.95 | 1.53 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
| Marathonbet | 6.05 | 3.80 | 1.44 |
| Pinnacle | 6.15 | 3.91 | 1.49 |
| SBO | 5.22 | 3.55 | 1.44 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 3.60 | 1.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .