Garuda Lions
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Premyer Liqa · Full time ·Matchday 5

Safa Baku vs Sabah FA

0 – 3 Full time

25′O. Mbina
30′A. Khaybulaev
58′T. FullerV. Qanbarov
58′F. YusifliV. Pop
63′M. JarjueA. Agcabayov
63′Y. LachaabJ. Mickels
63′O. MbinaCarlos Eduardo
69′V. Simic
73′U. RakhmonaliyevJunior Almeida
73′V. SimicR. Fernandes
74′D. MertensN. Aliyev
74′B. DansokoO. Diaw
81′A. KhaybulaevR. Rustamli

ASK Arena, BakuReferee: N. Ismayilli

Safa Baku 11%
Draw 19%
Sabah FA 71%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Safa Baku vs Sabah FA overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Safa Baku vs Sabah FA

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySafa BakuDrawSabah FA
Model13.8%21.1%65.1%
Market9.5%17.9%72.6%
Final10.6%18.7%70.7%
Edge+4.2%+3.3%-7.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Sabah FA

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 0.91.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Safa Baku ↓ / Sabah FA → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 9% 11% 8% 7% 1 10% 10% 7% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

Safa Baku and Sabah FA expected goals

Safa Baku 0.91
Sabah FA 2.17

Total expected goals: 3.08

Safa Baku and Sabah FA attack and defence ratings

Safa Baku

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Sabah FA

Attack 1.48 +48%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Safa Baku vs Sabah FA: result vs prediction

Safa Baku 0 – 3 Sabah FA

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Premyer Liqa

Before and after this match

Safa Baku vs Sabah FA markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sabah FA 70.7% 1.41 -7.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.4% 1.68 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.9% 1.86 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 89.4% 1.12 — —
Handicap -1 Sabah FA win 42.4% 2.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Safa Baku10.6%
Draw18.7%
Sabah FA70.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%
Both teams to scoreYes53.9%
No46.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)29.3%
12 (either side)81.3%
X2 (draw or away)89.4%
Handicap -1Sabah FA win42.4%
Push (exactly one goal)22.7%
Loss34.9%
Correct score (top 3)0-210.8%
1-110.0%
1-29.9%

Safa Baku vs Sabah FA stats

Safa Baku and Sabah FA recent form

newest first
Safa Baku LLWL
Sabah FA LWWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.

Safa Baku vs Sabah FA head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Safa Baku vs Sabah FA odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 9.5%, draw 17.9%, away 72.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 9.85 5.15 1.24
Bet365 8.50 4.75 1.25
BetVictor 9.50 5.25 1.25
Betfair 9.50 5.00 1.22
Pinnacle 8.60 5.30 1.26
William Hill 10.00 4.80 1.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 9.50 ▲ +0.25
X 5.08 ▼ -0.08
2 1.25 ▼ -0.01

3 snapshots recorded, from .