Garuda Lions
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Premyer Liqa · Full time ·Matchday 4

Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku

4 – 1 Full time

35′R. Abbasov
46′B. SambouF. Vargas
46′O. DiawD. Mertens
46′B. DansokoT. Fuller
48′M. Musayev
59′Luis Felipe
62′Luis FelipeN. Aliyev
64′A. Skribek
66′A. Skribek
68′I. MathewE. Safarov
68′E. MahmudovGustavo Klismahn
78′F. YusifliR. Huseynli
79′Breno Almeida
80′Gustavo Klismahn
81′A. SkribekV. Sevelj
83′Breno AlmeidaD. Savic

Palms Sports Arena, BakuReferee: A. Aghayev

Neftchi Baku 71%
Draw 19%
Safa Baku 10%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNeftchi BakuDrawSafa Baku
Model62.6%23.9%13.4%
Market74.1%17.7%8.2%
Final71.2%19.3%9.5%
Edge-11.4%+6.2%+5.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Neftchi Baku

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.74.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Neftchi Baku ↓ / Safa Baku → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 13% 11% 2 13% 10% 3 8% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 8%

Neftchi Baku and Safa Baku expected goals

Neftchi Baku 1.87
Safa Baku 0.74

Total expected goals: 2.61

Neftchi Baku and Safa Baku attack and defence ratings

Neftchi Baku

Attack 1.55 +55%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Safa Baku

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku: result vs prediction

Neftchi Baku 4 – 1 Safa Baku

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Premyer Liqa

Before and after this match

Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Neftchi Baku 71.2% 1.40 -11.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.9% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score No 54.6% 1.83 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 90.5% 1.11 — —
Handicap -1 Neftchi Baku win 38.4% 2.60 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Neftchi Baku71.2%
Draw19.3%
Safa Baku9.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%
Both teams to scoreYes45.4%
No54.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)90.5%
12 (either side)80.7%
X2 (draw or away)28.8%
Handicap -1Neftchi Baku win38.4%
Push (exactly one goal)24.7%
Loss36.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.8%
1-012.7%
1-111.3%

Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku stats

Neftchi Baku and Safa Baku recent form

newest first
Neftchi Baku LWWWLW
Safa Baku LWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 74.1%, draw 17.7%, away 8.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.22 5.10 11.60
Bet365 1.22 5.00 10.00
BetVictor 1.22 5.25 11.50
Marathonbet 1.21 5.10 11.00
Pinnacle 1.24 5.54 10.56
William Hill 1.25 4.80 11.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.22 —
X 5.10 ▲ +0.05
2 11.00 ▼ -0.12

2 snapshots recorded, from .