Premyer Liqa
·
Full time
·Matchday 3
Safa Baku
vs
Imisli FK
0 – 1 Full time
Safa Baku
49%
Draw
33%
Imisli FK
17%
Safa Baku vs Imisli FK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Safa Baku vs Imisli FK
| Probability | Safa Baku | Draw | Imisli FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.2% | 33.4% | 17.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.2% | 33.4% | 17.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Safa Baku
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.60.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
82%
2+ goals
54%
3+ goals
26%
No goals
18%
Safa Baku and Imisli FK expected goals
Safa Baku
1.18
Imisli FK
0.60
Total expected goals: 1.78
Safa Baku and Imisli FK attack and defence ratings
Safa Baku
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
0.93 -7%
Imisli FK
Attack
0.52 -48%
Defence
1.07 +7%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Safa Baku vs Imisli FK: result vs prediction
Safa Baku 0 – 1 Imisli FK
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Safa Baku vs Imisli FK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Safa Baku | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Safa Baku | 49.2% |
| Draw | 33.4% | |
| Imisli FK | 17.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.3% |
| No | 67.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Safa Baku win | 22.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.7% | |
| Loss | 50.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.8% |
| 0-0 | 18.1% | |
| 1-1 | 13.1% |