Garuda Lions
Today
Premyer Liqa · Full time ·Matchday 2

Qabala vs Safa Baku

0 – 1 Full time

Referee: I. Mammadov

Qabala 46%
Draw 29%
Safa Baku 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Qabala vs Safa Baku overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Qabala vs Safa Baku

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityQabalaDrawSafa Baku
Model42.3%30.0%27.6%
Market47.3%28.2%24.4%
Final46.1%28.7%25.2%
Edge-5.0%+1.8%+3.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Qabala

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 1.03.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Qabala ↓ / Safa Baku → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 8% 1 11% 14% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 11%

Qabala and Safa Baku expected goals

Qabala 1.34
Safa Baku 1.03

Total expected goals: 2.37

Qabala and Safa Baku attack and defence ratings

Qabala

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Safa Baku

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Qabala vs Safa Baku: result vs prediction

Qabala 0 – 1 Safa Baku

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Premyer Liqa

Before and after this match

Qabala vs Safa Baku markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Qabala 46.1% 2.17 -5.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.7% 1.73 — —
Both teams to score No 51.2% 1.95 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.8% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 57.7% 1.73 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Qabala46.1%
Draw28.7%
Safa Baku25.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.3%
Under 2.557.7%
Both teams to scoreYes48.8%
No51.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.8%
12 (either side)71.3%
X2 (draw or away)53.9%
Handicap -1Qabala win20.3%
Push (exactly one goal)22.1%
Loss57.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.2%
1-011.2%
0-010.6%

Qabala vs Safa Baku stats

Qabala and Safa Baku recent form

newest first
Qabala LWWWDL
Safa Baku L

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Qabala vs Safa Baku head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Qabala vs Safa Baku odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.3%, draw 28.2%, away 24.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.95 3.20 3.70
1xBet 1.89 3.26 3.76
888Sport 1.91 3.00 3.75
Bet365 1.90 3.20 3.70
BetVictor 1.91 3.25 3.80
Betano 1.98 3.25 3.65
Betfair 1.85 3.30 3.80
Dafabet 1.93 3.20 3.70
Marathonbet 1.87 3.26 3.68
Pinnacle 1.94 3.17 3.84
SBO 1.90 2.94 3.29
Superbet 1.97 3.25 3.70
Unibet 1.89 3.10 3.55
William Hill 1.91 3.00 3.75

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.