Qarabag
vs
Kapaz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Qarabag
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 18% model probability
Qarabag vs Kapaz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Qarabag vs Kapaz
| Probability | Qarabag | Draw | Kapaz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.3% | 22.2% | 7.5% |
| Market | 76.0% | 15.7% | 8.3% |
| Final | 74.6% | 17.3% | 8.1% |
| Edge | -5.7% | +6.5% | -0.8% |
Why Qarabag
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Qarabag vs Kapaz match preview
Qarabag enters this match against Kapaz with a strong probability of winning at 75%, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 17% and Kapaz at 8%. The expected goals for Qarabag is 1.49, compared to Kapaz's 0.65, suggesting a significant advantage for the home side. Recent form shows Qarabag with three wins in their last five matches, while Kapaz has two wins in the same period.
In their last three encounters, Qarabag has managed one win, while Kapaz has claimed victory twice, indicating a competitive rivalry. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Qarabag and Kapaz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
Qarabag and Kapaz attack and defence ratings
Qarabag
Kapaz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Qarabag vs Kapaz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 74.6% | 1.34 | -5.7% | 1.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.6% | 1.46 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.9% | 1.09 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.0% | 2.27 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 74.6% |
| Draw | 17.3% | |
| Kapaz | 8.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.4% |
| No | 68.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 25.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 44.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.8% |
| 2-0 | 17.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.0% |
Qarabag vs Kapaz stats
Qarabag and Kapaz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Qarabag and Kapaz season so far
Qarabag record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Kapaz record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Qarabag vs Kapaz head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Kapaz | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Qarabag | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Qarabag | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Qarabag vs Kapaz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.0%, draw 15.7%, away 8.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.22 | 6.10 | 10.90 |
| 888Sport | 1.20 | 5.75 | 12.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.20 | 5.75 | 11.00 |
| Betano | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.25 |
| Betfair | 1.18 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.13 | 6.65 | 12.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.21 | 6.03 | 9.73 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 5.80 | 12.00 |