Sabah FA
vs
Sumqayıt
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sabah FA
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Sabah FA vs Sumqayıt overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sabah FA vs Sumqayıt
| Probability | Sabah FA | Draw | Sumqayıt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.2% | 18.9% | 10.9% |
| Market | 65.5% | 20.4% | 14.1% |
| Final | 66.7% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Edge | +4.7% | -1.5% | -3.2% |
Why Sabah FA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sabah FA below the model: +4.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sabah FA vs Sumqayıt match preview
Sabah FA enters the match against Sumqayıt with a strong probability of winning at 67%, reflecting their recent form of three consecutive wins and a total of five victories in their last six matches. Their expected goals stand at 2.75, indicating a potent attack, while their defense has limited opponents to an expected goal tally of just 0.92. The most likely scoreline is projected at 2-0, with a 62% chance of more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
In contrast, Sumqayıt has struggled recently, recording six winless matches, with their last three encounters against Sabah FA resulting in two losses and one draw. Their current form includes two draws and four losses, which contributes to a lower probability of winning at 13%. The likelihood of both teams scoring is at 52%, suggesting that while Sabah FA is favored, Sumqayıt could still pose some threat.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sabah FA and Sumqayıt expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.31
Sabah FA and Sumqayıt attack and defence ratings
Sabah FA
Sumqayıt
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sabah FA vs Sumqayıt markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabah FA | 66.7% | 1.50 | +4.7% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sabah FA win | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabah FA | 66.7% |
| Draw | 20.0% | |
| Sumqayıt | 13.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% |
| No | 47.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabah FA win | 50.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 27.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-1 | 8.9% |
Sabah FA vs Sumqayıt stats
Sabah FA and Sumqayıt recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sabah FA and Sumqayıt season so far
Sabah FA record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Sumqayıt record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sabah FA vs Sumqayıt head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Sabah FA | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa | 3-1 |
| 2025-12-22 | Sumqayıt | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa | 1-3 |
| 2025-09-28 | Sabah FA | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sabah FA vs Sumqayıt odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.5%, draw 20.4%, away 14.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 4.70 | 6.54 |
| 888Sport | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.25 | 6.80 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38 | 4.69 | 6.47 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.00 |