Neftchi Baku
vs
Araz
5 – 0 Full time
Neftchi Baku vs Araz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Neftchi Baku vs Araz
| Probability | Neftchi Baku | Draw | Araz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.6% | 22.0% | 16.4% |
| Market | 60.7% | 23.0% | 16.3% |
| Final | 60.9% | 22.7% | 16.3% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -1.0% | +0.1% |
Why Neftchi Baku
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Neftchi Baku and Araz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.15
Neftchi Baku and Araz attack and defence ratings
Neftchi Baku
Araz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Neftchi Baku vs Araz: result vs prediction
Neftchi Baku 5 – 0 Araz
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Neftchi Baku vs Araz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neftchi Baku | 60.9% | 1.64 | +0.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Neftchi Baku win | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neftchi Baku | 60.9% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Araz | 16.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Neftchi Baku win | 39.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 38.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
Neftchi Baku vs Araz stats
Neftchi Baku and Araz recent form
| Neftchi Baku |
WWLWWW |
| Araz |
DWWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Neftchi Baku vs Araz head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Neftchi Baku | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Araz | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 0-4 |
| 2025-10-19 | Neftchi Baku | Araz | Premyer Liqa | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Neftchi Baku vs Araz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.7%, draw 23.0%, away 16.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 3.96 | 5.77 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 3.85 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.47 | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.48 | 3.94 | 5.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.55 | 3.91 | 5.19 |
| SBO | 1.41 | 3.74 | 5.80 |
| Superbet | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Unibet | 1.47 | 3.70 | 5.25 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 3.70 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .