Premyer Liqa
·
Full time
·Matchday 3
Zira
vs
Neftchi Baku
1 – 0 Full time
| 4′ | I. Mathew | ||
| 26′ | Guima | ||
| 35′ | E. Badalov | ||
| 45′ | Q. Aliyev | ||
| 46′ | E. SafarovA. Skribek | ||
| 46′ | L. TuptaD. Savic | ||
| 46′ | I. MathewA. Gravillon | ||
| 64′ | F. VargasE. Mahmudov | ||
| 64′ | Gustavo KlismahnB. Sambou | ||
| 70′ | E. Badalov | ||
| 70′ | E. Badalov | ||
| 75′ | A. GuseynovG. Papunashvili | ||
| 75′ | D. VolkoviI. Djibrilla | ||
| 80′ | Ruan Renato | ||
| 84′ | I. IbrahimliH. Hacyly | ||
| 90′ | VieirinhaE. Alicanov |
Zira
34%
Draw
27%
Neftchi Baku
39%
Zira vs Neftchi Baku overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zira vs Neftchi Baku
| Probability | Zira | Draw | Neftchi Baku |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.0% | 27.2% | 38.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 34.0% | 27.2% | 38.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Neftchi Baku
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
55%
No goals
7%
Zira and Neftchi Baku expected goals
Zira
1.39
Neftchi Baku
1.50
Total expected goals: 2.88
Zira and Neftchi Baku attack and defence ratings
Zira
Attack
1.25 +25%
Defence
0.70 -30%
Neftchi Baku
Attack
1.74 +74%
Defence
0.84 -16%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Zira vs Neftchi Baku: result vs prediction
Zira 1 – 0 Neftchi Baku
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zira vs Neftchi Baku markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neftchi Baku | 38.8% | 2.58 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zira | 34.0% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Neftchi Baku | 38.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% |
| No | 40.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Neftchi Baku win | 19.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 61.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
Zira vs Neftchi Baku stats
Zira and Neftchi Baku recent form
| Zira |
WWDLWW |
| Neftchi Baku |
WWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zira vs Neftchi Baku head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
0Zira wins
3Draws
0Neftchi Baku wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Zira | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Neftchi Baku | Zira | Premyer Liqa | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Zira | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.