Garuda Lions
Today
Eredivisie · Full time ·Matchday 4

AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles

5 – 2 Full time

AFAS Stadion, AlkmaarReferee: Alex Bos, Netherlands

AZ Alkmaar 65%
Draw 19%
GO Ahead Eagles 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAZ AlkmaarDrawGO Ahead Eagles
Model56.5%22.4%21.1%
Market68.1%18.1%13.8%
Final65.2%19.1%15.6%
Edge-11.6%+4.3%+7.3%

Confidence: Low

Why AZ Alkmaar

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.26.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AZ Alkmaar ↓ / GO Ahead Eagle → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 10% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 5% 7% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles expected goals

AZ Alkmaar 2.14
GO Ahead Eagles 1.26

Total expected goals: 3.40

AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles attack and defence ratings

AZ Alkmaar

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.73 -27%

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles: result vs prediction

AZ Alkmaar 5 – 2 GO Ahead Eagles

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Eredivisie

Before and after this match

AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 AZ Alkmaar 65.2% 1.53 -11.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.1% 1.51 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.2% 1.56 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.4% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.6% 2.30 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AZ Alkmaar65.2%
Draw19.1%
GO Ahead Eagles15.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.1%
Under 2.533.9%
Both teams to scoreYes64.2%
No35.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.4%
12 (either side)80.9%
X2 (draw or away)34.8%
Handicap -1AZ Alkmaar win35.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss43.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.9%
2-19.6%
2-07.6%

AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles stats

AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles recent form

newest first
AZ Alkmaar WWWDDD
GO Ahead Eagles WDWLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles going into this match

league record before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar record

  • They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6AZ Alkmaar wins 4Draws 0GO Ahead Eagles wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-23GO Ahead EaglesAZ AlkmaarEredivisie0-0
2025-12-07AZ AlkmaarGO Ahead EaglesEredivisie2-2
2025-05-04GO Ahead EaglesAZ AlkmaarEredivisie0-3
2025-04-21AZ AlkmaarGO Ahead EaglesKNVB Beker1-1
2024-10-27AZ AlkmaarGO Ahead EaglesEredivisie2-2
2024-05-12GO Ahead EaglesAZ AlkmaarEredivisie0-3
2023-08-13AZ AlkmaarGO Ahead EaglesEredivisie5-1
2023-01-25GO Ahead EaglesAZ AlkmaarEredivisie1-4
2022-08-07AZ AlkmaarGO Ahead EaglesEredivisie2-0
2022-02-13GO Ahead EaglesAZ AlkmaarEredivisie1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 68.1%, draw 18.1%, away 13.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.39 5.10 6.50
1xBet 1.40 5.44 7.05
Bet365 1.40 5.00 7.50
BetVictor 1.36 5.25 7.00
Betano 1.42 5.10 6.80
Betfair 1.33 5.00 7.00
Dafabet 1.42 5.40 6.80
Marathonbet 1.36 5.25 6.80
Pinnacle 1.38 5.37 6.83
SBO 1.34 4.55 5.70
Superbet 1.41 5.25 6.50
Unibet 1.37 5.20 6.75
William Hill 1.36 4.80 6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.38 ▼ -0.15
X 5.20 ▲ +0.58
2 6.80 ▲ +1.34

13 snapshots recorded, from .