Garuda Lions
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Eredivisie · Full time ·Matchday 4

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam

2 – 1 Full time

Stadion Woudestein, RotterdamReferee: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands

Excelsior 47%
Draw 23%
Sparta Rotterdam 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityExcelsiorDrawSparta Rotterdam
Model69.4%17.6%13.1%
Market39.5%25.1%35.4%
Final47.0%23.2%29.8%
Edge+29.8%-7.5%-22.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Excelsior

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Excelsior below the model: +29.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Excelsior ↓ / Sparta Rotterd → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 8% 2 8% 9% 5% 3 7% 8% 4+ 9% 10% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 3%

Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam expected goals

Excelsior 2.65
Sparta Rotterdam 1.12

Total expected goals: 3.77

Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam attack and defence ratings

Excelsior

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam: result vs prediction

Excelsior 2 – 1 Sparta Rotterdam

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Eredivisie

Before and after this match

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Excelsior 47.0% 2.13 +29.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.7% 1.38 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.3% 1.58 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.8% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Excelsior win 49.0% 2.04 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Excelsior47.0%
Draw23.2%
Sparta Rotterdam29.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.7%
Under 2.527.3%
Both teams to scoreYes63.3%
No36.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.2%
12 (either side)76.8%
X2 (draw or away)53.0%
Handicap -1Excelsior win49.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss30.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.1%
2-08.1%
3-18.0%

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam stats

Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam recent form

newest first
Excelsior LWWDWW
Sparta Rotterdam DWLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Excelsior wins 1Draws 5Sparta Rotterdam wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-17Sparta RotterdamExcelsiorEredivisie2-3
2025-09-14ExcelsiorSparta RotterdamEredivisie0-1
2024-02-17Sparta RotterdamExcelsiorEredivisie4-2
2023-10-01ExcelsiorSparta RotterdamEredivisie2-1
2023-03-05ExcelsiorSparta RotterdamEredivisie1-4
2023-01-14Sparta RotterdamExcelsiorEredivisie1-0
2021-07-31ExcelsiorSparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs0-3
2018-01-21Sparta RotterdamExcelsiorEredivisie2-3
2017-10-21ExcelsiorSparta RotterdamEredivisie1-1
2017-04-07Sparta RotterdamExcelsiorEredivisie2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.5%, draw 25.1%, away 35.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.36 3.75 2.62
1xBet 2.38 3.91 2.74
Bet365 2.40 3.80 2.62
BetVictor 2.38 3.70 2.63
Betano 2.37 3.75 2.75
Betfair 2.38 3.75 2.70
Dafabet 2.41 3.75 2.80
Marathonbet 2.31 3.80 2.66
Pinnacle 2.37 3.71 2.79
SBO 2.25 3.29 2.49
Superbet 2.40 3.70 2.77
Unibet 2.40 3.55 2.65
William Hill 2.30 3.60 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.38 ▲ +0.29
X 3.75 ▲ +0.07
2 2.66 ▼ -0.57

13 snapshots recorded, from .