Groningen
vs
Fortuna Sittard
2 – 3 Full time
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard
| Probability | Groningen | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.7% | 22.2% | 23.0% |
| Market | 61.2% | 20.9% | 18.0% |
| Final | 59.6% | 21.2% | 19.2% |
| Edge | -6.5% | +1.4% | +5.1% |
Why Groningen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Groningen and Fortuna Sittard expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
Groningen and Fortuna Sittard attack and defence ratings
Groningen
Fortuna Sittard
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard: result vs prediction
Groningen 2 – 3 Fortuna Sittard
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Groningen | 59.6% | 1.68 | -6.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.7% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Groningen | 59.6% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Fortuna Sittard | 19.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% |
| No | 33.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Groningen win | 34.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 45.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-0 | 6.8% |
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard stats
Groningen and Fortuna Sittard recent form
| Groningen |
LWWLWW |
| Fortuna Sittard |
LWDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Groningen | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Fortuna Sittard | Groningen | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-16 | Groningen | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-26 | Fortuna Sittard | Groningen | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-08 | Groningen | Fortuna Sittard | KNVB Beker | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-02 | Fortuna Sittard | Groningen | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
| 2022-11-13 | Groningen | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 2-3 |
| 2022-02-12 | Groningen | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2021-11-27 | Fortuna Sittard | Groningen | Eredivisie | 1-4 |
| 2021-02-28 | Groningen | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.2%, draw 20.9%, away 18.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.52 | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 4.68 | 5.19 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.40 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.45 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.55 | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 4.55 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.52 | 5.15 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 4.11 | 4.80 |
| Superbet | 1.54 | 4.65 | 5.25 |
| Unibet | 1.47 | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .