PSV Eindhoven
vs
Groningen
5 – 1 Full time
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen
| Probability | PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Groningen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.2% | 19.8% | 22.0% |
| Market | 72.1% | 16.2% | 11.7% |
| Final | 68.6% | 17.1% | 14.3% |
| Edge | -13.9% | +3.6% | +10.3% |
Why PSV Eindhoven
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 1.55.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
PSV Eindhoven and Groningen expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.09
PSV Eindhoven and Groningen attack and defence ratings
PSV Eindhoven
Groningen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen: result vs prediction
PSV Eindhoven 5 – 1 Groningen
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 68.6% | 1.46 | -13.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.6% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 68.6% |
| Draw | 17.1% | |
| Groningen | 14.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.3% |
| No | 26.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win | 38.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 41.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.4% |
| 1-1 | 7.3% | |
| 3-1 | 7.1% |
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen stats
PSV Eindhoven and Groningen recent form
| PSV Eindhoven |
WDWWDW |
| Groningen |
WWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Groningen | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | PSV Eindhoven | Groningen | Eredivisie | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 72.1%, draw 16.2%, away 11.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 6.30 | 8.90 |
| 888Sport | 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.33 | 6.30 | 8.50 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.36 | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 6.00 | 8.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.31 | 6.37 | 8.41 |
| SBO | 1.30 | 5.51 | 6.47 |
| Superbet | 1.31 | 6.20 | 7.70 |
| Unibet | 1.30 | 5.60 | 8.00 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .