Utrecht
vs
PSV Eindhoven
1 – 6 Full time
Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven
| Probability | Utrecht | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.2% | 18.7% | 56.1% |
| Market | 21.8% | 21.2% | 57.0% |
| Final | 22.7% | 20.6% | 56.7% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -2.6% | -0.9% |
Why PSV Eindhoven
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 1.89.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.65
Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven attack and defence ratings
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven: result vs prediction
Utrecht 1 – 6 PSV Eindhoven
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 56.7% | 1.76 | -0.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.4% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utrecht | 22.7% |
| Draw | 20.6% | |
| PSV Eindhoven | 56.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.1% |
| No | 19.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win | 37.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 43.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 6.9% |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | |
| 1-3 | 6.3% |
Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven stats
Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven recent form
| Utrecht |
DLLDWW |
| PSV Eindhoven |
WWDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | PSV Eindhoven | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 4-3 |
| 2025-12-21 | Utrecht | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.8%, draw 21.2%, away 57.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.30 | 4.33 | 1.65 |
| 1xBet | 4.53 | 4.53 | 1.67 |
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 4.50 | 1.62 |
| BetVictor | 4.40 | 4.33 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 4.20 | 4.45 | 1.70 |
| Betfair | 4.33 | 4.50 | 1.62 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 4.50 | 1.71 |
| Marathonbet | 4.40 | 4.40 | 1.62 |
| Pinnacle | 4.41 | 4.45 | 1.66 |
| SBO | 3.88 | 3.90 | 1.58 |
| Unibet | 4.60 | 4.25 | 1.61 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .