Willem II
vs
Heerenveen
2 – 2 Full time
Willem II vs Heerenveen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Willem II vs Heerenveen
| Probability | Willem II | Draw | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.4% | 27.8% | 27.8% |
| Market | 24.5% | 23.0% | 52.6% |
| Final | 29.5% | 24.2% | 46.4% |
| Edge | +19.9% | +4.9% | -24.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Willem II and Heerenveen expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Willem II and Heerenveen attack and defence ratings
Willem II
Heerenveen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Willem II vs Heerenveen: result vs prediction
Willem II 2 – 2 Heerenveen
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Willem II vs Heerenveen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 46.4% | 2.16 | -24.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Willem II | 29.5% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Heerenveen | 46.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heerenveen win | 11.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 71.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
Willem II vs Heerenveen stats
Willem II and Heerenveen recent form
| Willem II |
LLWLWW |
| Heerenveen |
LDWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Willem II vs Heerenveen head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Willem II vs Heerenveen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.5%, draw 23.0%, away 52.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.70 | 4.10 | 1.80 |
| 1xBet | 3.88 | 4.26 | 1.82 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 4.10 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 3.85 | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 4.10 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.82 |
| Marathonbet | 3.78 | 4.15 | 1.77 |
| Pinnacle | 3.84 | 4.36 | 1.78 |
| SBO | 3.41 | 3.54 | 1.75 |
| Unibet | 3.85 | 3.85 | 1.80 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .