Heerenveen
vs
AZ Alkmaar
2 – 3 Full time
| 7′ | R. Daal | ||
| 21′ | N. Courtens | ||
| 28′ | Nolhan Courtens | ||
| 30′ | R. Meerveld | ||
| 46′ | M. Chavez GarciaM. de Wit | ||
| 46′ | Weslley PatatiC. Stengs | ||
| 54′ | Ro-Zangelo Daal | ||
| 64′ | J. ClasieV. Byskov | ||
| 68′ | D. VenteR. Uldrikis | ||
| 68′ | M. RiveraL. Oyen | ||
| 68′ | E. DijkstraS. Maikuma | ||
| 69′ | M. Meerdink | ||
| 74′ | D. ProperL. Smans | ||
| 82′ | R. DaalA. Oufkir | ||
| 83′ | A. Oufkir | ||
| 88′ | N. CourtensH. Petrov | ||
| 90′ | Ayoub Oufkir |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 45 | Possession % | 55 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 5 | Saves | 3 |
| 345 | Accurate passes | 441 |
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
| Probability | Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.9% | 23.9% | 52.2% |
| Market | 23.7% | 22.5% | 53.8% |
| Final | 23.7% | 22.9% | 53.4% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +1.4% | -1.6% |
Why AZ Alkmaar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.23
Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar attack and defence ratings
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar: result vs prediction
Heerenveen 2 – 3 AZ Alkmaar
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 53.4% | 1.87 | -1.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.8% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 23.7% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| AZ Alkmaar | 53.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% |
| No | 37.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 46.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win | 30.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 47.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.6% |
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar stats
Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar recent form
| Heerenveen |
DLDWLD |
| AZ Alkmaar |
WWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar going into this match
AZ Alkmaar record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 3-0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-22 | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 4-1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 9-1 |
| 2024-01-28 | Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2023-10-21 | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 3-0 |
| 2023-04-01 | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2023-01-14 | Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
| 2022-05-22 | AZ Alkmaar | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.1%, draw 22.9%, away 53.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.85 | 4.10 | 1.76 |
| 1xBet | 4.03 | 4.26 | 1.79 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.73 |
| Betano | 3.90 | 4.05 | 1.83 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 3.85 | 4.20 | 1.84 |
| Marathonbet | 3.92 | 4.15 | 1.74 |
| Pinnacle | 4.05 | 4.34 | 1.79 |
| SBO | 3.33 | 3.54 | 1.77 |
| Superbet | 3.80 | 4.10 | 1.83 |
| Unibet | 3.90 | 3.95 | 1.78 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .