Garuda Lions
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Eredivisie · Full time ·Matchday 3

Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle

0 – 2 Full time

Abe Lenstra Stadion, HeerenveenReferee: Richard Martens, Netherlands

Heerenveen 63%
Draw 20%
PEC Zwolle 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHeerenveenDrawPEC Zwolle
Model70.8%18.4%10.7%
Market60.1%21.0%18.9%
Final62.8%20.3%16.8%
Edge+10.7%-2.5%-8.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Heerenveen

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 0.86.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Heerenveen below the model: +10.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Heerenveen ↓ / PEC Zwolle → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 9% 2 11% 10% 3 9% 8% 4+ 9% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle expected goals

Heerenveen 2.39
PEC Zwolle 0.86

Total expected goals: 3.25

Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle attack and defence ratings

Heerenveen

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.88 -12%

PEC Zwolle

Attack 0.69 -31%
Defence 1.34 +34%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle: result vs prediction

Heerenveen 0 – 2 PEC Zwolle

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Eredivisie

Before and after this match

Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Heerenveen 62.8% 1.59 +10.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.2% 1.58 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.1% 1.88 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.2% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Heerenveen win 48.8% 2.05 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Heerenveen62.8%
Draw20.3%
PEC Zwolle16.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%
Both teams to scoreYes53.1%
No46.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.2%
12 (either side)79.7%
X2 (draw or away)37.2%
Handicap -1Heerenveen win48.8%
Push (exactly one goal)21.9%
Loss29.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.1%
2-19.5%
3-08.9%

Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle stats

Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle recent form

newest first
Heerenveen DWLDLW
PEC Zwolle LLLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Heerenveen wins 0Draws 1PEC Zwolle wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-15HeerenveenPEC ZwolleEredivisie4-2
2025-11-28PEC ZwolleHeerenveenEredivisie2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.1%, draw 21.0%, away 18.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.58 4.58 5.19
888Sport 1.57 4.20 4.80
Bet365 1.57 4.33 5.25
BetVictor 1.53 4.40 5.00
Betano 1.62 4.70 5.10
Betfair 1.53 4.50 5.00
Dafabet 1.60 4.60 5.00
Marathonbet 1.54 4.45 5.05
Pinnacle 1.58 4.68 5.20
SBO 1.53 4.17 4.70
Superbet 1.59 4.50 5.00
Unibet 1.52 4.60 5.10
William Hill 1.57 4.20 4.80

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.