Eredivisie
·
Full time
·Matchday 3
Fortuna Sittard
vs
AZ Alkmaar
0 – 2 Full time
Fortuna Sittard
24%
Draw
22%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
| Probability | Fortuna Sittard | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.3% | 22.5% | 53.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.3% | 22.5% | 53.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why AZ Alkmaar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.42.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
88%
3+ goals
69%
No goals
4%
Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar expected goals
Fortuna Sittard
1.42
AZ Alkmaar
2.14
Total expected goals: 3.55
Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar attack and defence ratings
Fortuna Sittard
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
1.13 +13%
AZ Alkmaar
Attack
1.34 +34%
Defence
0.80 -20%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar: result vs prediction
Fortuna Sittard 0 – 2 AZ Alkmaar
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.8% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Sittard | 24.3% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| AZ Alkmaar | 53.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.7% |
| No | 32.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 46.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win | 32.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 46.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 1-3 | 6.6% |
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar stats
Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar recent form
| Fortuna Sittard |
WDLWLL |
| AZ Alkmaar |
WWDDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar going into this match
AZ Alkmaar record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
1Fortuna Sittard wins
0Draws
1AZ Alkmaar wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | AZ Alkmaar | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 4-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.