NEC Nijmegen
vs
Excelsior
2 – 2 Full time
| 4′ | Jamiro Monteiro | ||
| 11′ | A. Tahaui | ||
| 43′ | D. Garden | ||
| 46′ | B. NuytinckP. Sandler | ||
| 46′ | J. MonteiroP. Schuurs | ||
| 46′ | S. JanssenK. Bos | ||
| 52′ | Lennard Hartjes | ||
| 63′ | D. GeigerN. Lebreton | ||
| 63′ | I. Hansen-AaroenK. Kers | ||
| 67′ | A. ThorsteinssonA. Sliti | ||
| 67′ | D. GardenN. Groen | ||
| 70′ | Rick Meissen | ||
| 71′ | E. da Silva MoreiraV. Sulzbacher | ||
| 73′ | V. Sulzbacher | ||
| 81′ | I. Silva TimasA. Jahanbakhsh | ||
| 87′ | G. BrasC. Bischoff | ||
| 90′ | Valentin Sulzbacher | ||
| 90′ | N. Lebreton |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 69 | Possession % | 31 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 582 | Accurate passes | 213 |
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior
| Probability | NEC Nijmegen | Draw | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.0% | 23.7% | 52.4% |
| Market | 58.3% | 22.3% | 19.4% |
| Final | 49.7% | 22.7% | 27.6% |
| Edge | -34.3% | +1.3% | +33.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.29
NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior attack and defence ratings
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior: result vs prediction
NEC Nijmegen 2 – 2 Excelsior
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | 49.7% | 2.01 | -34.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | 49.7% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Excelsior | 27.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% |
| No | 36.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC Nijmegen win | 10.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.5% | |
| Loss | 76.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.4% |
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior stats
NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior recent form
| NEC Nijmegen |
LWLLWW |
| Excelsior |
WWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Excelsior | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-09 | NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 5-0 |
| 2024-05-06 | Excelsior | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 0-3 |
| 2023-08-13 | NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 3-4 |
| 2023-02-19 | Excelsior | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 0-3 |
| 2022-10-08 | NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2021-04-09 | Excelsior | NEC Nijmegen | Eerste Divisie | 2-1 |
| 2021-01-08 | NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | Eerste Divisie | 3-2 |
| 2019-12-06 | Excelsior | NEC Nijmegen | Eerste Divisie | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.3%, draw 22.3%, away 19.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.57 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 4.16 | 5.04 |
| 888Sport | 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 4.25 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 4.40 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.05 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 4.23 | 5.12 |
| SBO | 1.57 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Superbet | 1.64 | 4.25 | 4.80 |
| Unibet | 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
22 snapshots recorded, from .