Excelsior
vs
Utrecht
1 – 2 Full time
| 36′ | Artem Stepanov | ||
| 62′ | Ángel AlarcónMarius Broholm | ||
| 62′ | Artem StepanovYoann Cathline | ||
| 62′ | Adrian BlakeS. van Duijn | ||
| 70′ | David GardenMario Domínguez Franco | ||
| 70′ | Kasey BosSimon Janssen | ||
| 70′ | Eric da Silva MoreiraValentin Sulzbacher | ||
| 71′ | Valentin Sulzbacher | ||
| 77′ | Aymen sliti | ||
| 80′ | Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonAlireza Jahanbakhsh | ||
| 81′ | Niklas VesterlundJoris van Overeem | ||
| 85′ | Lennard HartjesGiulliano Cairo | ||
| 85′ | Mario Domínguez Franco | ||
| 90′ | Dani De Wit | ||
| 90′ | Arthur ZagreJakov Medic |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 441 | Accurate passes | 340 |
Excelsior vs Utrecht overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Excelsior vs Utrecht
| Probability | Excelsior | Draw | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.2% | 15.2% | 13.5% |
| Market | 43.4% | 25.3% | 31.3% |
| Final | 50.4% | 22.8% | 26.8% |
| Edge | +27.8% | -10.1% | -17.7% |
Why Excelsior
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Excelsior below the model: +27.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Excelsior and Utrecht expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.57
Excelsior and Utrecht attack and defence ratings
Excelsior
Utrecht
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Excelsior vs Utrecht: result vs prediction
Excelsior 1 – 2 Utrecht
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Excelsior vs Utrecht markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior | 50.4% | 1.99 | +27.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Excelsior win | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior | 50.4% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Utrecht | 26.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.0% |
| No | 27.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Excelsior win | 53.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 28.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.7% |
| 2-1 | 7.3% | |
| 4-1 | 6.0% |
Excelsior vs Utrecht stats
Excelsior and Utrecht recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Excelsior and Utrecht going into this match
Excelsior record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
Utrecht record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Excelsior vs Utrecht head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Excelsior | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 5-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Utrecht | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 4-1 |
| 2024-01-27 | Excelsior | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Utrecht | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2023-01-25 | Utrecht | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-02 | Excelsior | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2019-02-23 | Utrecht | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 0-0 |
| 2018-11-30 | Excelsior | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 3-3 |
| 2018-02-04 | Excelsior | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2017-11-19 | Utrecht | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Excelsior vs Utrecht odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.0%, draw 25.5%, away 31.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.28 | 3.70 | 2.78 |
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.80 | 3.04 |
| 888Sport | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.28 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 3.70 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.79 | 3.08 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.37 | 2.83 |
| Unibet | 2.23 | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
19 snapshots recorded, from .