Ajax
vs
FC Sion
5 – 3 Full time
Ajax vs FC Sion overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ajax vs FC Sion
| Probability | Ajax | Draw | FC Sion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.7% | 18.5% | 23.7% |
| Market | 70.6% | 16.7% | 12.7% |
| Final | 67.4% | 17.1% | 15.5% |
| Edge | -12.9% | +1.9% | +11.0% |
Why Ajax
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.81.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ajax and FC Sion expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.59
Ajax and FC Sion attack and defence ratings
Ajax
FC Sion
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ajax vs FC Sion: result vs prediction
Ajax 5 – 3 FC Sion
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Playoff round fixtures
Before and after this match
Ajax vs FC Sion markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 67.4% | 1.48 | -12.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.8% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 67.4% |
| Draw | 17.1% | |
| FC Sion | 15.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.1% |
| No | 20.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 39.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 42.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.1% |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | |
| 2-2 | 6.4% |
Ajax vs FC Sion stats
Ajax and FC Sion recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ajax and FC Sion going into this match
Ajax record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Sion record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
Ajax vs FC Sion head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | FC Sion | Ajax | UEFA Europa Conference League | 2-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ajax vs FC Sion odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.6%, draw 16.7%, away 12.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.35 | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 5.88 | 8.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.50 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.35 | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.30 | 5.55 | 7.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.26 | 5.51 | 7.85 |
| SBO | 1.29 | 4.84 | 5.99 |
| Superbet | 1.36 | 5.50 | 6.40 |
| Unibet | 1.30 | 5.60 | 8.00 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .