FC Sion
vs
FC Lugano
1 – 2 Full time
FC Sion vs FC Lugano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Sion vs FC Lugano
| Probability | FC Sion | Draw | FC Lugano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.5% | 19.0% | 58.5% |
| Market | 42.8% | 26.1% | 31.1% |
| Final | 37.7% | 24.3% | 37.9% |
| Edge | -20.3% | -7.1% | +27.4% |
Why FC Lugano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.07 vs 1.74.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Lugano below the model: +27.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Sion and FC Lugano expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.81
FC Sion and FC Lugano attack and defence ratings
FC Sion
FC Lugano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Sion vs FC Lugano: result vs prediction
FC Sion 1 – 2 FC Lugano
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Sion vs FC Lugano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 37.9% | 2.64 | +27.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 45.8% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Sion | 37.7% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| FC Lugano | 37.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.4% |
| No | 23.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 45.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 36.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 1-3 | 6.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.5% |
FC Sion vs FC Lugano stats
FC Sion and FC Lugano recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Sion and FC Lugano going into this match
FC Sion record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
FC Lugano record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
FC Sion vs FC Lugano head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | FC Sion | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League | 2-2 |
| 2026-03-04 | FC Lugano | FC Sion | Switzerland Super League | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | FC Lugano | FC Sion | Switzerland Super League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-03 | FC Sion | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Sion vs FC Lugano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.8%, draw 26.1%, away 31.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.20 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.34 | 3.20 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.22 | 3.65 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.34 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.22 | 3.32 | 3.35 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.33 | 2.72 |
| Unibet | 2.20 | 3.65 | 2.95 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .