Maccabi Tel Aviv
vs
FC Lugano
1 – 1 Full time
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano
| Probability | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Draw | FC Lugano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.1% | 19.3% | 57.7% |
| Market | 40.4% | 27.3% | 32.3% |
| Final | 36.0% | 25.3% | 38.7% |
| Edge | -17.3% | -8.0% | +25.3% |
Why FC Lugano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.69.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Lugano below the model: +25.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.33
Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano attack and defence ratings
Maccabi Tel Aviv
FC Lugano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano: result vs prediction
Maccabi Tel Aviv 1 – 1 FC Lugano
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Playoff round fixtures
Before and after this match
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 38.7% | 2.59 | +25.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 36.0% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| FC Lugano | 38.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.2% |
| No | 23.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 38.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 42.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.8% |
| 1-3 | 6.8% | |
| 2-2 | 6.5% |
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano stats
Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano recent form
| Maccabi Tel Aviv |
WLWLWW |
| FC Lugano |
WWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano going into this match
FC Lugano record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | FC Lugano | Maccabi Tel Aviv | UEFA Europa Conference League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.4%, draw 27.3%, away 32.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.68 | 2.89 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.37 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.52 | 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.67 | 2.77 |
| SBO | 2.17 | 3.11 | 2.71 |
| Superbet | 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.87 |
| Unibet | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .