Switzerland Super League
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
FC Lugano
vs
Servette FC
1 – 0 Full time
| 19′ | Ahmed Kendouci | ||
| 28′ | Dereck Moncada | ||
| 38′ | Pedrinho | ||
| 45′ | Ahmed KendouciAnto Grgic | ||
| 58′ | Timothé Cognat | ||
| 60′ | Samuel MrázKingstone Mutandwa | ||
| 67′ | Behruzjon KarimovMattia Zanotti | ||
| 67′ | Dereck MoncadaAlbian Ajeti | ||
| 69′ | Tiemoko OuattaraThomas Lopes | ||
| 70′ | PedrinhoDavid Douline | ||
| 74′ | Daniel Dos Santos CorreiaElias Pihlstrom | ||
| 80′ | Lilian NjohDavid Datro Fofana | ||
| 80′ | Quentin MaceirasHouboulang Mendes | ||
| 90′ | Yanis CimignaniBeckham Castro | ||
| 90′ | Albian Ajeti |
FC Lugano
48%
Draw
25%
Servette FC
27%
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 66 | Possession % | 34 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 2 |
| 566 | Accurate passes | 265 |
FC Lugano vs Servette FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Lugano vs Servette FC
| Probability | FC Lugano | Draw | Servette FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.5% | 23.2% | 24.4% |
| Market | 46.3% | 25.5% | 28.2% |
| Final | 47.8% | 24.9% | 27.3% |
| Edge | +6.2% | -2.3% | -3.8% |
Why FC Lugano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Lugano below the model: +6.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
86%
3+ goals
66%
No goals
4%
FC Lugano and Servette FC expected goals
FC Lugano
2.05
Servette FC
1.36
Total expected goals: 3.41
FC Lugano and Servette FC attack and defence ratings
FC Lugano
Attack
1.64 +64%
Defence
0.65 -35%
Servette FC
Attack
1.35 +35%
Defence
0.69 -31%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Lugano vs Servette FC: result vs prediction
FC Lugano 1 – 0 Servette FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Lugano vs Servette FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 47.8% | 2.09 | +6.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.5% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 47.8% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Servette FC | 27.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% |
| No | 34.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 31.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 47.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
FC Lugano vs Servette FC stats
FC Lugano and Servette FC recent form
| FC Lugano |
WDWWDW |
| Servette FC |
DWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Lugano and Servette FC going into this match
FC Lugano record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Servette FC record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
FC Lugano vs Servette FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2FC Lugano wins
2Draws
6Servette FC wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | FC Lugano | Servette FC | Switzerland Super League | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-14 | FC Lugano | Servette FC | Switzerland Super League | 4-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Servette FC | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-15 | Servette FC | FC Lugano | Super League | 4-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | FC Lugano | Servette FC | Super League | 0-2 |
| 2024-12-01 | Servette FC | FC Lugano | Super League | 3-0 |
| 2024-08-03 | FC Lugano | Servette FC | Super League | 3-1 |
| 2024-06-02 | Servette FC | FC Lugano | Schweizer Cup | 0-0 |
| 2024-05-25 | FC Lugano | Servette FC | Super League | 0-2 |
| 2024-02-18 | Servette FC | FC Lugano | Super League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Lugano vs Servette FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.3%, draw 25.5%, away 28.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.70 | 3.34 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.65 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 3.70 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.65 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.08 | 3.83 | 3.41 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 3.20 | 2.95 |
| Superbet | 2.00 | 3.55 | 3.45 |
| Unibet | 1.98 | 3.70 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.01 ▼ -0.02
X
3.65 —
2
3.30 ▲ +0.08
6 snapshots recorded, from .